737 
FXUS64 KMRX 091830
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
 
- Dry conditions through Thursday. Chances for showers and storms
  return Thursday evening and overnight north of I-40.
  

- Friday, Saturday and Sunday will feature chances for scattered
  showers and storms areawide, mainly in the afternoon and evening
  hours. Locally heavy rainfall is the main threat due to elevated
  PW values of around 2 inches.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.
  If CHA hits 90 today and tomorrow, they will tie the record for
  consecutive days with a high temp of 90 or greater. The current
  record is 38 days back in 1993.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

No real change in the forecast. Ridge flattens out on Thursday as a 
broad upper trough, and associated weak frontal boundary, advances 
from north to south toward our region. Most of Thursday should be 
dry. Then, chances for showers and storms increase Thursday evening 
and overnight, north of I-40, as the boundary draws closer.

Front likely washes out on Friday over the area. However, a weak 
shortwave then moves across for Friday and Saturday. This will keep 
chances of showers and storms in the forecast, mainly during the 
afternoon and evening hours. While strong storm or two are possible, 
no severe weather is expected. Main concern with any stronger storm 
will be locally heavy rainfall due to elevated PW values of 2 
inches. 

Early next week, riding builds back in. This will restrict precip 
chances to the high terrain during peak heating. By mid-week, we 
start to see a more zonal flow again. This will open the door for 
slightly better coverage of precip chances across the area. Late 
next week, another broad trough and frontal boundary approach from 
the north. But it will be a battle between his feature and the high 
to our southeast. Hopefully the high breaks down and we can get 
some additional rain chances across the area. 

Temperatures remain above average through the period. If CHA hits 90 
today, it will be day 37 of consecutive days at or above 90 
degrees. The all time record is 38 days set back in 1993. The 
current forecast calls for above 90 degree temps for CHA for the 
next 7 days. They are likely to hit it tomorrown too, but the 
streak could be disrupted if CHA sees showers and storms on either
Friday/Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Winds
should be mostly light and around 10kts or less. TYS and TRI may
seen an additional, isolated, wind gust through the afternoon to
around 15 kts. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  93  71  93 /   0  10   0  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  50 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  87  66  87 /   0  10  30  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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