982 
FXUS64 KMRX 171828
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

- Isolated storms are possible this evening, especially in southern 
areas. Strong winds and hail up to 1 inch in diameter are possible, 
but coverage is expected to be limited. 

- Widespread rain chances return Wednesday through next week.

- High temperatures will rise well into the 80s to around 90
  degrees for many today through Tuesday, followed by moderation
  of temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Currently this afternoon, broad ridging is in place across the 
eastern U.S. ahead of deepening troughing over the Rockies. The 
Bermuda High continues to strengthen in the Atlantic, leading to 
increased southerly flow and temperatures rising near the 90-degree 
mark. With moisture advection compared to yesterday, there is a low-
end chance for diurnal convection, especially in the south. While 
there's virtually 0 shear, mid-level lapse rates are at or above 7 
C/km with MLCAPE rising above 1,000 J/kg. The main question is about 
initiation, which could end up being very minimal per some of the 
CAMs. Any storms would pose a marginal wind and hail threat in this 
environment. On Monday, troughing to the northwest will lift as it 
ejects into the northern Great Plains with a developing surface low 
tracking towards the Great Lakes. Locally, 500mb heights will 
surpass 5,880m, which is at or above normals for July. Similarly hot 
temperatures can be expected with slightly less moisture leading to 
even lower chances for diurnal storms. 

By Tuesday, the cold front associated with the Great Lakes low will 
begin to advance towards the Ohio River Valley with the pattern 
locally remaining similarly hot and dry. By Wednesday, however, the 
front will move through the Ohio River Valley with better moisture 
advection out ahead. This will lead to a widespread increase in 
chances for showers and storms. Thursday and Friday, the front will 
move towards the region before getting pulled back northward into 
the weekend. This will keep rain chances elevated for the rest of 
the period. At this time, there is still no strong indication of an 
environment supportive of organized or severe storms, which is also 
shown in the CIPS analogs. Isolated stronger storms will be possible 
as in most summer convection days. Overall coverage is uncertain 
this far out, but hopefully many places see rainfall as Knoxville 
and Chattanooga continue to be at the lowest year-to-date rainfall 
since 2007.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Isolated storms are possible by early evening, mainly around CHA
and TYS. A TEMPO was included at CHA due to better chances with
VCTS at TYS. It is very possible that storms stay away from both
sites. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will gradually diminish
through the evening with cloud cover generally around 5,000 to
10,000 feet. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  88  66  89 /  10  20   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  90  66  90 /  10  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  89  64  88 /  10  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  90  61  88 /  10  20   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


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