184 
FXUS64 KMRX 100633
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
233 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026
 
- Spotty showers are possible today and tonight mainly the
  northern Plateau into southwest Virginia. A few rumbles of 
  thunder will be possible.
 
- Friday, Saturday and Sunday scattered showers and storms 
  areawide, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Locally 
  heavy rainfall is the main threat due to elevated PW values of 
  around 2 inches.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.
  If CHA hits 90 again today, they will tie the record for
  consecutive days with a high temp of 90 or greater. The current
  record is 38 days back in 1993.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

In the upper levels, a weak ridge remains over the Southeast as a 
broad trough moves into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. At the surface, 
a cold front will be over the Ohio Valley today. Mostly dry weather 
will continue through this afternoon although a few stray showers 
will be possible mainly over the upper Cumberland Plateau. This 
evening and into the overnight hours, showers will increase, mainly 
in the northern third of the region as a decaying cold front slowly 
moves down from the north. Thunder chances are low with decreasing 
instability. CAMs keep showers weak but reflects better coverage 
across the region whereas the NBM keeps showers well to the north of 
Knoxville.  

Daily rain chances are expected mainly in the afternoon and evening 
hours from Friday through the weekend. In the upper levels, a 
shortwave will be over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The weak 
surface boundary will also be lingering over or near the region 
through the weekend. Deep layer moisture advection is likely with 
high pressure over the Atlantic bringing southerly surface winds and 
a trough to the west bringing higher level moisture from the Gulf. 
Showers and storms will likely be scattered at times Friday through 
Saturday. NBM has the highest chances on Saturday afternoon.

The best chance for strong to severe storms will be Saturday with 
good instability around 2000 J/kg. With weak shear and high freezing 
levels the primary threat will be gusty winds. With good moisture 
advection, Pwat values will be elevated around 2 inches on Saturday 
so heavy downpours will be likely at times that may cause some 
isolated flooding. Steering flow around 15 knots should help keep 
showers and storms moving, so overall the flooding threat is low.
Friday has a lower threat of impact weather with lower instability 
and lower Pwat values. By Sunday, the shortwave to the west is gone 
and a weak ridge builds into the Southeast. Therefore, showers and 
storms will be more isolated on Sunday and perhaps more scattered in 
the mountains.

Early next week, a ridge will be over the Southeast. Isolated to 
scattered showers and storms will be possible with the highest 
chances in and near the terrain. Afternoon highs will be above 
normal throughout the forecast period with upper 80s expected near 
Tri-Cities and lower 90s for Knoxville and Chattanooga areas, 
generally about 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Chattanooga is expected 
to exceed 90 degrees again today and tomorrow. If that happens, they 
will break the record for consecutive days with a high temp of 90 or 
greater. The current record is 38 days back in 1993. Saturday the 
forecast is 90 for Chattanooga but that may not happen if clouds and 
convection occur earlier in the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions at all TAF sites. There will be some increase in
mid and high clouds with areas of broken 6-8kft ceilings at TYS
and TRI from 15 to 22Z today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  72  95  72 /   0   0  40  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  70  93  71 /   0  10  30  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  69  92  70 /  10  10  40  40 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  66  87  66 /  10  20  40  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


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