696 
FXUS64 KMRX 111058
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
658 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 655 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
 
 Most locations will be dry today with isolated showers and storms 
mainly in the north.

- Saturday looks to be the best day for shower and storm coverage.
  Then more isolated again on Sunday. Saturday, locally heavy 
rainfall is the main threat due to elevated PW values of around 2 
inches.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.
  Yesterday, CHA tied the record for consecutive days at or above
  90 deg set back in 1993. With drier conditions now expected for
  today, the probability that CHA breaks the record, with day 39,
  is very high. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

In the upper levels, a weak ridge remains over GA/SC as a trough 
develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, the slow 
moving weak cold front is over Kentucky slowly drifting southward. 
Showers and maybe a few storms will be isolated today, mainly in the 
Upper Cumberland Plateau and Southwest Virginia as the decaying 
front lingers. Instability will be a little higher today around 500-
1000 J/kg. Some thunder and gusty winds will be possible in the 
stronger storms. 

Rain chances are the highest Saturday as the shortwave moves into 
the region. The weak surface boundary will also be lingering over or 
near the region on Saturday. Deep layer moisture advection is likely 
with high pressure over the Atlantic bringing southerly surface 
winds and a trough to the west bringing higher level moisture from 
the Gulf. NBM has very high rain chances on Saturday with waves of 
showers and storms possibly starting before noon. 

The best chance for strong to severe storms will be Saturday with 
good instability around 2000-2500 J/kg. With weak shear and high 
freezing levels the primary threat will be gusty winds. With good 
moisture advection, Pwat values will be elevated around 2 inches on 
Saturday so heavy downpours will be likely at times that may cause 
some isolated flooding. Steering flow around 10-15 knots should help 
keep showers and storms moving, so overall the flooding threat is 
low.

By Sunday, the shortwave has moved east and a weak ridge builds into 
the Southeast. Therefore, showers and storms will be more isolated 
on Sunday lingering to the east and northeast near the mountains.

Early next week, a ridge will be over the Southeast. Monday looks 
dry with low chances of showers and storms returning Tuesday and 
Wednesday in and near the east Tennessee mountains. Tennessee Valley 
locations will remain dry. Thursday rain chances will be isolated in 
the Tennessee Valley and maybe scattered in and near the terrain.
 
Afternoon highs will be above normal throughout the forecast period 
with mainly upper 80s expected near Tri-Cities and lower 90s for 
Knoxville and Chattanooga areas, generally about 6 to 8 degrees 
above normal. Chattanooga is expected to exceed 90 degrees again 
today. If that happens, they will break the record for consecutive 
days with a high temp of 90 or greater. The current record is 38 
days back in 1993. The streak may be broken on Saturday with the 
forecast at 88 for Chattanooga since convection may begin in the 
morning hours. If the timing ends up later or coverage is not as 
widespread as expected, the streak may continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the day with winds light and
generally from the south to southwest at 10 kts or less. Some
ceilings are possible, mainly at or above 5,000 feet AGL. Rain
chances will increase this evening into tonight near CHA, but 
mention was left out of the TAF due to limited probability of
impact at the site. Low-end fog chances exist again at TRI, but
few places saw fog in our area this morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  72  88  71 /  30  50  90  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  72  87  69 /  10  20  90  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  70  86  68 /  10  20  90  50 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  67  85  66 /  10  10  70  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


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