735 
FXUS64 KMRX 131756
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Showers and storms expected tomorrow, and a few of these storms 
may become strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary 
threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
  showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Currently another warm day with temperatures back up in the 80s for 
most of the region with an afternoon of small cumulus out there. 
Expect mostly dry weather today along with temperatures and dew 
points a couple of degrees lower than yesterday helping to take the 
edge off the mugginess. We could see a few showers develop during 
the peak heating of the day, with the best chances being across the 
higher terrain of the Appalachians.

Tomorrow will see the return of rain chances as front moves in from 
the northwest to help try and spark off thunderstorms during the day 
ahead of it. Environment ahead of the front looks to destabilize a 
decent amount with ample heating and dew points into the mid 70's 
with southerly winds near the surface. Forecast soundings indicate 
there should be 1000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the area, and 
possibly over 2000 in southeast TN by the afternoon hours. There 
will be some minor speed shear, but the biggest threat with the 
strong to possibly severe storms tomorrow would be damaging winds 
under collapsing storms. Some of the CAMs are trying to congeal the 
mid afternoon convection across far east/southeast TN and NC into a 
MCS... Which if that does happens means we still would have damaging 
winds as the primary hazard, but we would expect to see more 
widespread wind damage with an MCS. Biggest unknown right now is how 
robust is the morning convection... If there's widespread morning 
convection this could stabilize the atmosphere and throw out some 
clouds to help cut down on the solar heating later in the day. So we 
have moderate confidence on more widespread storms firing off at 
some point tomorrow, but lower confidence on the severity of them 
until we see what the atmosphere looks like in the late morning 
hours.

Cooler and likely dry weather will be in store to start off the week 
as the front sits across the southern Tennessee Valley. The overall 
troughiness over much of the eastern US will help to moderate 
temperatures for much of the week with highs looking to be in the 
mid to low 80's for most days next week. Towards the back half of 
the work week a few systems will try and traverse across the Ohio 
Valley which could phase with the southern stream systems bringing 
more chances for widespread showers and storms.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Between 09z and 12z 
the remnants of overnight convection to our west will push into East 
Tennessee. I threw in some VCSH at all sites to account for that as 
I'm not confident enough in the coverage to go with anything higher. 
After the period, additional SHRA/TSRA are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  89  68  82 /  20  80  40  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  88  65  81 /  10 100  70   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  87  64  81 /  20 100  40   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  87  62  79 /   0  90  80   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)