618 
FXUS64 KMRX 140556
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms expected today, and a few of these storms may become
  strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
  showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern 
U.S. At the surface, current analysis has a decaying stationary 
front near the Georgia/Tennessee border. Some storms are currently 
moving through southern Middle Tennessee. This activity will 
continue to weaken as it moves into the Cumberland Plateau. The 
chance for showers and thunderstorms will start to increase early 
this morning with better confidence in development in the late 
morning and early afternoon hours. A weak shortwave will move 
through the pattern in the early afternoon hours. At the surface, a 
low centered near OH/PA will bring a cold front to our doorstep in 
the afternoon hours and it will move through in the evening hours. 

Showers and storms possibly getting off to an early start today, 
complicates the forecast and decreases confidence in intensity and 
timing. CAMs have not been doing well with the messy pattern and the 
way summertime activity kicks out outflows that can trigger more 
storms. Surface based instability will likely still be high for most 
of the region this afternoon. Dew points will be in the low 70s, 
CAPE up to 2k J/kg likely and steep low level lapse rates. With a 
high sun angle this time of year, instability may be able to rebound 
after skies clear behind early daytime activity. Most of the region 
is in a marginal risk for severe storms which seems appropriate. The 
East Tennessee and North Carolina mountains are on the edge of the 
slight risk. The primary threat will be damaging winds. The freezing 
level will be high around 15k feet making large hail difficult to 
achieve. 

The broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by 
Monday. Rain chances will be very low Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 
A stationary boundary will likely linger well to the south early 
this week. With a deep trough in place, temperatures will be cooler 
with highs mainly in the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances 
increase on Thursday and Friday as a shortwave moves through 
Thursday and finally a cold front passage on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms around at times today,
guidance has several waves of activity through much of the TAF
period, primarily after 12z this morning. Hard to pick out any
narrow high confidence timeline due to the expected coverage
today. Any TS will have brief periods of MVFR restrictions.
Otherwise winds will be southwesterly during peak mixing hours in
the afternoon, with a few gusts to 20 knots possible, especially
at KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  68  82  64 /  80  40  10  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  65  81  61 / 100  70   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  64  81  59 / 100  40   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  62  79  57 /  90  80   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


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