AWUS01 KWNH 100825
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-101423-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1237
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...in and near KS & MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100823Z - 101423Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to
persist past sunrise.  Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional
local totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding where soils are saturating and in urban areas.

Discussion...A couple batches of thunderstorms lurk near the
southern border of CO/KS and from southeast KS into western MO. 
These storms are near a confluence zone at 850 hPa, generally
elevated over a surface thermal boundary stretching near the 37th
parallel near the KS/OK and MO/AR borders.  Rainfall over the past
28 hours is estimated as high as 8" near Mound City KS per doppler
radar, implying saturating soils.  Precipitable water values range
from 1.5" in the Central High Plains to 2-2.5" farther east closer
to sea level.  Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts.  MU CAPE is
roughly 1000-2000 J/kg.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that both batches of convection
should persist past sunrise, with the CO/KS area dropping
east-southeast into northern OK while the KS/western MO activity
edges southward, making minimal eastward progress as a hole in the
instability pool across portions of MO broadens due to convection
increasing stability with time.  Hourly rainfall amounts to 2.5"
with additional local totals to 4" are possible where mesocyclones
form, cell training occurs, and cell mergers happen.  Flash flood
guidance continues to lower over portions of MO due to slowly
saturating soils.  Widely scattered instances of flash flooding
are possible where soils are saturating and urban areas.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...GLD...ICT...LSX...OUN...PAH...
PUB...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39629195 38919000 38298950 37938984 37449243 
            35319656 36590118 37000242 37370321 37970332 
            38660253 38800205 38420060 38209962 38239844 
            38539749 39079561 39619361 

$$
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