973 
FXUS64 KMRX 101839
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Multiple waves of showers and storms will move through the region 
through Sunday.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible each day. The 
primary threat will be gusty winds.

- A Flood Watch remain in effect through Sunday evening. 

- Drier weather returns for the middle of next week with near 
  normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Overall, the CAMs have done a very poor job over the last 12 to 18 
hours. This morning's round of showers and storms weren't modeled at 
all until the 10/11Z HRRR runs started coming in, even with the 
activity having been on radar for numerous hours. This gives me very 
low confidence in how the convection unfolds over the next 48 hours. 
Additionally, a few days ago models were consistent in showing a well 
defined, broad, swath of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across a good 
portion of our area. While this swath is still loosely shown by the 
12Z HRRR, it's not as well defined as it was a few days ago and the 
timing is different. The previous window for the greatest flood 
potential was late tonight into Saturday. However, now it looks like 
the greatest threat would be Saturday night into Sunday.
 
Bottom line, the flood threat should build as we go into the weekend 
as repeated waves of showers and storms roll through the area. Areas 
that see repeated moderate to heavy rain will be the most likely 
areas to see any flooding issues. While flooding is possible at any 
time, the greatest likelihood appears to be Saturday night into 
Sunday. Also, a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out each 
day through Sunday, with strong gusty winds being the primary 
threat. 2 to 4 inches of total rainfall is still expected for areas 
that see repeated showers and storms, but a few isolated amounts 
in excess of 5 inches are also possible. Once we see which areas 
receive the heavier rainfall today and tomorrow, it will give us 
a much better idea on what areas are more likely to see flooding 
between Saturday night and Sunday.


Beyond Sunday, models are now showing a wetter Monday due to the 
potential of a cutoff low rotating over our region. Isolated 
flooding could continue into Monday if we do receive the expected 
rainfall amounts, several inches, through the weekend. We dry out 
somewhat from midweek and beyond but daily chances for diurnal 
showers and storms will still be in the forecast. 



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

ISOLD/SCT convection should continue to move across the forecast 
area through maybe 21z or so. There should be a lull in activity 
after that until 06z or so, when another round of storms moves in 
overnight. Models favor mainly KTYS for overnight convection, 
showing a fairly narrow corridor of storms from the KTYS vicinity 
northwest through Scott county (KSCX) and into Kentucky. But I 
included them in KTRI and KCHA as well as there is uncertainty in 
how widespread these storms will be.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  89  72  87 /  70  80  60  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  84  70  85 /  90  80  70  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  84  69  84 /  90  80  70  90 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  81  66  82 /  90  90  70  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount 
     Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky 
     Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
     Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
     Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast 
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


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