Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 11 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 13 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Friday and the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains
on Saturday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains on Friday...

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains on Thursday
will retreat to the Southern Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. The system will
produce showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the
Southern Plains, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachians on Thursday into Friday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Southwest on Friday into Saturday morning. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Friday into Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most
vulnerable.

A second front over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern High Plains on
Thursday evening will move inland to the Upper Midwest to the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Central Plains by Saturday. The boundary will produce
rain over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region on Thursday evening
and expand across parts of the Northern High Plains overnight Thursday
into Friday.

Moreover, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Northern/Central Plains on Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Friday evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains and continue into Saturday
evening. The showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains on Saturday into Sunday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and
burn scars being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Mid-Atlantic southward to Florida and westward to the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday evening. On Saturday
morning, rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and
become showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great
Lakes/Northeast Mid-Atlantic, extending southward to Florida and along the
Gulf Coast.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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