435 
FXUS64 KMRX 101837
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
237 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026
 
- A few isolated showers, and perhaps a storm or two, remain
  possible this afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-40. 
 
- Friday now looks drier as the front may wash out to our north.

- Saturday looks to be the best day for shower and storm coverage.
  Then more isolated again on Sunday. Saturday, locally heavy
  rainfall is the main threat due to elevated PW values of around
  2 inches.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period. CHA
  has hit 90 again today, which is day 38. This now ties the 
  record for consecutive days at or above 90 deg set back in 1993.
  With drier conditions now expected for tomorrow, the 
  probability that CHA breaks the streak, with day 39, is very 
  high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Scattered to isolated showers remain mostly to our north, closer to 
a weak frontal boundary. However, some of our northern most areas 
may still see an isolated shower or storm this afternoon and 
evening. The frontal boundary was previously forecast to push into 
our area tonight and Friday. However, it now looks like the front 
may stay to our north. This means Friday will now be drier with only 
isolated showers, and perhaps a few storms, in place during the 
afternoon and evening hours. 

Precip chances do increase Friday night into Saturday as a weak 
shortwave moves across the region. The best coverage of showers and 
storms will be on Saturday. A few strong storms and wind gusts are 
possible, but the main threat will continue to be locally heavy 
rainfall due to elevated PW values up around 2 inches. While 
isolated flooding potential exists, it's low. Clouds and 
showers/storms may prevent CHA from reaching 90 again on Saturday, 
but if they do hit 90 the consecutive streak with likely continue 
into next week.

Precip chances lessen on Sunday as drier air filters in from the 
northwest behind the shortwave, though a few isolated showers and 
storms remain possible.

High pressure then looks to build back into the area to start the 
week. This means the heat will remain with no meaningful rain 
chances. Though the east TN mountains may still see some isolated 
diurnal activity. By mid-to-late week, a broad upper trough and 
another frontal boundary approach from the north. As a result, precip 
chances increase during this timeframe due to more zonal flow and 
hopefully a frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period at all sites with 
winds mostly out of the south to southwest at around 10kts or 
less. Probability of fog at TRI to low to mention in TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  96  73  90 /   0  20  60  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  94  72  89 /   0  10  50  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  93  70  88 /   0  10  40  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  88  67  87 /  10  20  20  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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