879 
FXUS64 KMRX 211121
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Rain is expected through through the morning hours with the best 
  chance for a few rumbles of thunder across portions of southeast
  TN and southwest NC. Afternoon will be mostly dry, with light 
  rain precipitation returning tonight.

- Quick shot of light snow Sunday morning, then a break Sunday 
  afternoon. Northwest flow snowfall Sunday night through Monday 
  evening. Light accumulations expected in the East TN Mountains 
  and southwest Virginia, with potential for low elevation 
  flurries at times.

- Gusty winds Sunday through Monday. Gusts around 30 mph expected
  for valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in the 
  mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
  Sunday through Monday across the higher elevations of southwest
  VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains. 
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

A shortwave traversing mean flow aloft will continue to promote 
rain showers through the overnight. A few rumbles of thunder 
cannot be totally ruled out with very minimal elevated 
instability, but no significant impacts are expected as shear is 
also limited with a weak LLJ displaced just to our south. Best 
chance for a few rumbles of thunder will be in the southern valley
and southwest NC. Rain will gradually come to an end through the 
morning, with a mostly dry afternoon expected.

A more prominent trough digs into the Ohio Valley as a cold front 
approaches the region later this evening and tonight. Precipitation 
chances will return as mostly rain to begin. As temperatures begin 
to fall early Sunday morning, a transition to snow is expected to 
bring light accumulations in the East Tennessee mountains and 
southwest Virginia. SW VA and E TN Mtns elevations 2kft or less 
would can expected a dusting to just a few tenths during this time. 
Mtn elevations above 2kft could see up to two inches, with isolated 
higher totals at the tallest peaks +5kft. A few flurries cannot be 
ruled out in lower elevations of NE TN Valley and the Cumberland 
Plateau but accumulation seems unlikely due to warmer grounds.

Moisture becomes very limited with mostly dry conditions for a brief 
period late morning and afternoon Sunday. A reinforcing disturbance 
and deepening of the sfc low along the East Coast will allow for a 
resurgence of low-level moisture and amplified NW flow Sunday night 
into Monday. Additional snowfall accumulations are expected in 
northwest flow snowfall locations through Monday evening. This will 
be the most likely time to see totals up to 2 inches in portions of 
southwest VA, with locally higher totals in the most favored ridge 
tops. Portions of the northern Plateau and northeast TN could also 
see a dusting to a few tenths of an inch. An additional 1 to 3 
inches could be possible in the east TN mountains. 

Overall, snowfall totals for southwest Virginia will trend up to 2 
inches with locally higher totals for the event. East TN mountain 
locations can expect 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher totals near 
5 inches at the very highest peaks. Portions of NE TN valley and 
Cumberland Plateau could see a dusting to a few tenths. 
Additionally, gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday. With below 
normal temperatures in place, wind Chills in the single digits to 
below zero are expected Sunday through Monday across the higher 
elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains. 

Snow tapers off Monday night with drier conditions and warming trend 
expected into the mid-week. Next chances for rain will be Wednesday 
night into Thursday with it currently looking to trend drier by next 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Showers will exit early this morning, but will make a return 
during the night. Mainly VFR conditions for much of the period all
sites, with MVFR conditions likely late in the period especially
TYS and TRI as the showers move in.  Winds will generally be 
light, but will increase from the north and northwest late in the
period to around 10 kts. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  34  46  24 /  30  30   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  34  41  25 /  30  40  10  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  33  41  24 /  20  40  10  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  34  38  23 /  20  60  40  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


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