AWUS01 KWNH 191318
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-191830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191317Z - 191830Z

Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding likely, with
possible localized considerable impact, over the Ozarks rest of
the morning. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected to
continue with 3 to 4 inches possible in three hours.

Discussion...A cold front continues to push southeast toward the
ozarks with prefrontal organized activity still with two distinct
areas currently over northern AR and over eastern OK. The junction
of these two MCSs caused 2-5" rainfall near the OK/MO border early
this morning with rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr still occurring over
southwest MO and northern AR. An MCV is likely to develop in the
left bookend from the OK MCS that generally works its way east
along the MO/AR border rest of the morning. SWly low level flow is
parallel to the outflow from eastern OK which should allow for an
additional round of heavy rainfall. This area is quite dry with
high flash flood guidance, but the Ozarks are a known flash flood
prone area with the terrain and high runoff, so there are concerns
for considerable impacts from 2-4" in a few hours.

1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.8" PW with SWly flow of 20-25kt is
sufficient to support repeating heavy thunderstorms along over
much of the Ozarks rest of this morning. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs
appear to be under analyzing the left bookend/MCV development
risk. Those models place greater QPF focus over southeastern OK
where activity is currently progressive.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

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