010 
FXUS64 KMRX 120634
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Multiple waves of showers and storms still expected through the region
  through Monday. A Flood watch remains in effect into tonight, 
  but may be extended later into Monday.

- Cannot rule out a strong gusty wind or two in any stronger 
  thunderstorm.

- More typical summer weather Tuesday onwards with normal
  temperatures and only a low PM chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

As of the current radar rain and thunderstorms are progressing 
across a couple areas across East Tennessee, producing lightning and 
brief bouts of heavy rain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will 
be randomly distributed through this morning and continue to pose a 
flooding risk.

A large swath of northeastern Tennessee into southwestern Virginia 
cannot take any more sustained moderate to heavy rains after the 
heavy rainfall from yesterday. And yet the storm chances with the 
cutoff low in our vicinity will continue. For those who have 
already seen significant rainfall and suffered flooding as a 
result, you need to remain vigilant and be prepared to take 
additional actions.

Looking at various guidance, once more we have various solutions. 
00z HRRR is one of the more aggressive outputs, with scattered 
thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Storms will not be constant, we 
will still see regular lulls, but should the more widespread 
convection modeled come to fruition we'll definitely see additional 
scattered flooding events. The rest of the guidance has various 
degrees of scattered storms, but generally not as widespread of an 
interpretation as the HRRR. The worrisome thing is the 00z HRRR 
initialized fairly well and handled the initial 6 hours pretty 
solidly, and so I'd probably lean slightly more in that general 
direction. The overall setup is still favorable, with an anomalously 
moist atmosphere and the presence of the closed low. Thunderstorms 
will continue to possess the ability of producing 2-4" per hour 
rainfall rates, and any amount of training or persistence of high
rain rates will produce flooding for those who are already super 
saturated in their soil conditions.

Locations in the southernmost Tennessee Valley, meanwhile, are 
better off, needing 2" or so over the full course of an hour to 
produce flooding. As long as storms continue moving or don't move in 
parallel with each other, flood risk is relatively lower for 
southeastern Tennessee and southwestern North Carolina. However, if 
they get repeated bouts, they will see flooding too. As far as 
severe weather, with as saturated as the profiles are if storms 
can get tall enough and strong enough they'll pose a risk for 
gusty winds, which will be more prone to felling trees in 
waterlogged areas. But severe weather isn't expected to be 
widespread.

The upper low is forecast to hang around in the Mid South region 
through Monday/Tuesday, and so rain chances will stick around. Seems 
like the low dips to the south before it heads west, and so storm 
chances on Tuesday are relegated more to Chattanooga and other 
southern counties. Still, scattered thunderstorms on Monday pose a 
continued flood risk for already saturated areas. We will continue 
to monitor the modeled storm coverage and risks in order to 
determine if the flood watch needs to be extended into Monday.

Eventually as we progress into the week, the closed low will drift 
to the west, and we will return to a more typical July pattern of 
daily warm weather, and moderately high upper heights. We'll keep 
our relatively moist atmosphere, so a daily diurnal pulse of 
afternoon to early evening storms will remain with us.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Showers and storms will be around during the period. There 
continues to be uncertainty in exact timing, but it currently 
appears that thunderstorms are likely early in the period
especially TRI and CHA, followed by a several hour period of 
lower probability of thunder before thunder chances pick up again 
this afternoon all sites. Will cover the higher probability times 
with tempo and prob30 thunder groups. VFR conditions are expected 
for much of the period all sites, with MVFR or lower conditions 
expected with some of the showers and storms. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  70  83  70 /  70  60  80  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  69  82  68 /  80  80  90  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  68  83  68 /  80  80  80  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  66  80  64 /  80  40  60  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount 
     Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky 
     Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
     Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
     Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast 
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99


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