083 
FXUS64 KMRX 111834
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
 
- A few isolated showers and storms will be around through this evening,
  though most locations will stay dry. A strong storm or two is 
  possible, mainly south of I-40. 

- Saturday, better coverage of showers and storms. Locally heavy
  rainfall is the main threat due to elevated PW values of around
  2 inches. Then showers and storms become more isolated on Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.
  CHA has unofficially hit 90 again today, which makes 39 days
  straight of 90 or above. This unofficially breaks the all-time 
  record for consecutive days with a high temp of 90 or greater, 
  which was previously 38 days set back in 1993. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Better coverage of showers and storms currently exists to our south 
down across AL and GA. This activity is associated with a weak area 
of low pressure moving north toward our region. Some of this 
activity could approach our southern most areas later this 
afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, a few isolated showers and 
storms expected through the evening, but most areas stay dry. A 
strong storm or two is possible for areas south of I-40 with 
straight line damaging winds being the main threat.

Shortwave still set to move across the region tomorrow, providing an 
uptick in shower and storm coverage. The best coverage will be 
during peak heating. While severe weather isn't expected, a few 
strong storms are possible. Locally heavy rainfall remains the 
main threat due to elevated PW values of around 2 inches. A low- 
end threat for isolated flooding exists.

Drier air moves in on Sunday behind the shortwave, which means 
showers and storms will be more isolated. We then start the new week 
with the ridge of high pressure building back into the area. This 
will keep us hot with above normal temperatures and very low 
chances for rain. Isolated, diurnal, showers and storms possible 
over the high terrain. Mid-to-late week, a broad upper trough and
frontal boundary approach from the north. This will help to nudge
the high southward and transition our area to more zonal flow, 
which will allow for rain chances to return. 

Forecast high tomorrow for Chattanooga is 88 degrees, due to 
increased cloud cover and showers/storms. If they do hit 90 
though, the 90 degree and above streak will likely continue for 
several to numerous more days due to low precip chances into next 
week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Isolated showers and storms will be around this afternoon and
evening. Greater confidence exist near CHA, so have a prob30 for
TSRA and MVFR CIGS and VIS. MVFR CIGs early tomorrow morning at
CHA and possibly TRI. More showers and storms tomorrow but likely beyond
the end of this TAF cycle. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  88  71  93 /  60  70  30  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  86  70  90 /  20  70  50  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  85  69  90 /  30  80  40  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  85  67  85 /   0  80  60  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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