AWUS01 KWNH 121240
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0683
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Areas affected...KY into northern TN, far western WV/VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121237Z - 121730Z

SUMMARY...At least isolated flash flooding appears likely across
portions of KY into northern TN and far western WV/VA over the
next 3-5 hours. Slow moving areas of heavy rain will produce
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher).

DISCUSSION...1215Z radar imagery showed widely scattered showers
with a few isolated thunderstorms across KY into far western VA.
The activity was focused near a frontal boundary that draped
roughly east to west across KY, in the vicinity of a slow moving
mid to upper-level low/trough along the OH River. A southerly
component of the low level flow, just ahead of a western KY
frontal wave, has allowed for an increase in low level
moisture/instability across portions of central KY over the past
couple of hours, supporting a local increase in rainfall
intensity. Very weak mean steering flow of ~5 kt or less was in
place near the frontal boundary in KY, beneath the mid-level
trough, along and just south of the OH River.

A gradual increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage is expected
over the next few hours over western to central KY into northern
TN, near and east of the low level low. The lower level low is
forecast to drop southeastward into northern TN through the early
afternoon with slow moving cores of heavy rain becoming scattered
in coverage through 17Z across the region. Much of the area has
received heavy rain over the past week which has compromised the
ability for soils to absorb rainfall, resulting in many areas of
low FFG values (1 to 2 inches or less...per hour). Hourly rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) is likely to produce at least
isolated areas of flash flooding into the early afternoon.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38668360 38458270 37988199 37098206 36858330 
            36368490 35848607 35728774 36278837 37198786 
            37858642 38468479 
$$
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 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)