227 
FXUS64 KMRX 200558
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
158 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue today with highs roughly 10 
  degrees above normal.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected today and into the
  weekend. A few strong storms are possible today, and perhaps 
  Friday as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Coverage of showers and storms will be greater today due to an 
increase in forcing thanks to a weak shortwave and frontal boundary 
moving into the area. HREF mean CAPE values are around 500 to 800 
J/kg for most of the area. SPC Day 1 Outlook has a marginal risk 
in place for northeast TN and our southwest VA counties. This 
appears warranted as there will be some low-end 0-6km bulk shear 
across these areas; HREF means generally yield around 20 kts. For 
this reason, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the
late afternoon/evening hours. The main threats will be small hail
and isolated damaging wind gusts. 

Models still showing an increase in PW values, around 1.6 to 1.8 
inches, on Thursday. Widespread to numerous showers and storms are 
expected areawide through the day. Due to the moisture increase, 
some locally to moderate to heavy downpours are expected. The severe 
threat is lower than Wednesday though due to an absence of shear. 

A warm, moist southerly flow will continue on Friday. In addition, 
an area of low pressure will be moving northeast from the lower 
Mississippi River Valley and into Missouri. This will allow for 
showers and storms across the region. LREF means show low/moderate 
instability and low-end 0-6km bulk shear across much of the area. If 
this occurs, a few strong to severe storms will be possible 
areawide.  

Shower and storm chances continue over the weekend and into early 
next week as we remain in a southwest flow pattern. With an upper 
trough to our northwest, and high pressure to our southeast, several 
disturbances will move thorugh the southwest flow and across our 
region. The environment will continue to be moist and unstable and 
will support continued chances for showers and storms each day. The 
primary impacts during this timeframe lightning and locally heavy 
rainfall.

QPF through the next 7 days will widely vary across our area. Some 
areas will receive several inches of rain and other areas much less. 
Areas that see repeated showers and storms over numerous days will 
see the most rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

An unsettled weather pattern begins today. Scattered showers and
TS possible, primarily in the late afternoon into early evening
hours, PROB30s cover the more probable timeframe. Cannot rule out
activity overnight late in the period, though thunder is less
likely. A few gusty winds up to 20 knots outside of any TS, 
primarily at TYS. Outside of storms, VFR skies expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  66  86  66 /  60  40  80  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  66  84  66 /  40  20  90  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  64  84  64 /  50  30  90  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  63  82  61 /  30  60 100  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


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