842 
FXUS64 KMRX 121850
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 204 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through
  Monday. A Flood watch remains in effect into tonight, but may 
  be extended later into Monday.

- Though chances are very low, cannot rule out a strong gusty 
  wind or two in any stronger thunderstorm.

- More typical summer weather Wednesday onwards with normal 
  temperatures and only a low PM chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected the rest of
today and into tonight as an upper level low rotates across the
region. PWs remain high, around 2 inches, and moderate to locally
heavy rainfall is expected across some locations. NAM soundings 
also support efficient rainfall process with tall skinny CAPE 
profiles, and a warm layer cloud depth of over 10k feet, though 
0-6km bulk shear is on the weaker side at around 15 to 20kts. 
Nonetheless, isolated 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts are possible 
for a few localized areas through this evening. If these amounts 
overlap with areas that have already seen flooding, additional 
flooding will be much quicker to occur. Areas that have seen 
little rainfall over the past few days can likely handle these 
higher end amounts with fewer problems.  

Current Flood Watch goes through 2 AM EDT Monday. Currently, do
not have the confidence to extend the watch. Could there be
additional issues overnight, yes. However, confidence in this
outcome is very low due to the expected isolated nature of
remaining showers or storms. Will leave the Flood Watch as is for 
now.

Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected
on Monday as the low remains overhead. As with today, additional
flooding is possible on Monday if any heavier rains occur already
saturated grounds.

We begin to dry out Monday night as the low takes a jog to our
south and southwest, but additional isolated to scattered showers
and storms are expected on Tuesday across our southern areas due 
to the vicinity of these areas to the upper low to our south. 
Drier conditions, but still with chances of some diurnal daily 
convection, are expected beyond Tuesday and through the remainder
of the week.




&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through the
period. Mostly VFR conditions are expected at TYS and TRI, 
outside of any thunderstorm passing over a terminal. MVFR
ceilings are forecast to settle in overnight at CHA and persist 
through the end of the period. Winds should be less than 10kts, 
outside of any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  83  70  84 /  60  80  60  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  82  68  85 /  80  90  20  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  83  68  86 /  80  80  20  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  80  64  85 /  40  60  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday for Anderson-
     Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
     Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
     Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast 
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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