ACUS02 KWNS 210632
SWODY2
SPC AC 210631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across
coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts.

... Discussion ...

A strong shortwave trough and attendant speed max over the Ohio
Valley at the start of the period will quickly dig east/southeast
during the day on Sunday, before pivoting north toward southern New
England overnight. At the surface, a low, initially over the coastal
waters of North Carolina, will deepen through the day as strong
large-scale ascent increases with the approaching shortwave trough.
The rate of deepening of the surface low will only increase
overnight as the shortwave trough takes on a neutral to negative
tilt and large-scale ascent increases further.

As the surface low deepens along the coast, the intensifying warm
conveyor belt to the north and west of the low, drawing warm, moist
Gulf Stream air inland. The combination of strong large-scale
ascent, strong low-level warm-air advection, and cooling mid-level
temperatures may result in enough elevated instability to support a
few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt as the low lifts
northward along the coast.

Farther south and west, the deepening surface low will drive a cold
front south across the Florida Peninsula. Surface temperatures in
the 70Fs and dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60Fs may support a narrow
ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg ahead of the
southward advancing front. As a result, showers and a few
thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front. Forecast
soundings show pronounced mid-and-upper-level warming, which will
limit the overall instability and a more robust lightning threat.

Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection
associated with the next upper-trough may lead to very isolated
lightning strikes along and off the Pacific Northwest coast.
However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need
for delineation.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026

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