Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 13 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 15 2026

...Showers and thunderstorms continues across the Central and Eastern U.S.
ahead of a well-defined front...

...Pacific low pressure system will lead to wet and cool weather across
the Northwest and Northern Rockies...



The upper trough over Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will continue to push the
leading frontal boundary into Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and extend across
central U.S., while a warm front lifts into the Northeast. The frontal
boundary will interact with moist unstable airmass, leading to showers and
thunderstorm development along the boundaries. The combination of
instability, deep moisture, and forcing, may lead to an elevated threat
for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms across portions of the
Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Plains through the
remainder of today. On Sunday, the frontal system continues to slowly push
into the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the frontal boundary
over central U.S. lifts northward. This will promote a continued threat of
severe thunderstorms over portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast
and excessive rainfall over portions of the Northeast and Midwest.

Across the Northwest, a upper trough will move into the region, ejecting
another frontal system leading to beneficial soaking rains. Farther south,
daily monsoon thunderstorms will continue across the Southern Rockies and
Four Corners, which may lead to isolated flash flooding. As the Pacific
system evolves, it is expected to spin up a lee-side cyclone over the
Northern and Central Rockies. By tomorrow morning, a strong low-level jet
interacting with a northward-moving front will cause the Plains to light
up with showers and thunderstorms, introducing a risk of isolated to
scattered flash flooding. Rainfall aside, the frontal passage(s) should
usher in pleasant daytime temperatures over portions of the Northern Tier,
Great Basin, and High Plains with highs in the low-mid 60s and 70s.
Unfortunately, the upper ridge will continue to persist for portions of
the southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as potential
record-breaking heat will continue to persist through the weekend.



Oudit/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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