AWUS01 KWNH 131147
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-131730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0698
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Areas affected...North Texas & OK/TX Border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131145Z - 131730Z

SUMMARY...A stormy morning is on tap across northern TX where
sufficient instability and ample moisture aloft are working in
tandem with a mid-level vort max to trigger thunderstorms.
Rainfall rates between 2-3"/hr are likely and could cause flash
flooding this morning, particularly in urban areas.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar shows clusters of thunderstorms over
the Fort Worth area and additional development north of Corsicana
and west of Tyler. The pattern remains driven by a potent
mid-level vort max near the Red River with NWrly 850mb flow to its
west colliding with SWrly 850mb winds residing over the TX Hill
Country. This is causing a natural convergence axis over North TX
within an environment that features PWs between 2.0-2.3" and
MUCAPE around 1,000 J/kg. MRMS 15-minute radar-estimated rainfall
rates were approaching 0.8-1.0", or suggesting rainfall rates of
2"/hr were ongoing within the Fort Worth metroplex. The
reinvigorated area of storms west of Tyler were already showing
>1" 15-minute rainfall totals, indicating over 2"/hr rainfall rates.

With the presence of the mid-level vort to the north and cooler
temps in North TX, followed by the inevitable daytime heating over
southeast TX where there is less cloud cover, and there is likely
to be a tightening of the theta-e gradient that could support the
convergence axis longer into the late morning hours. The 10Z HRRR
shows that while some thunderstorm activity wains this morning,
the presence of the mid-level vort and prolonged convergence axis
should keep thunderstorms capable of producing maximum rates of
2-3"/hr in the forecast into the early afternoon hours. Convection
is not overly intense, but low-topped storms with warm-cloud
layers as deep as 14,000ft are supportive of highly-efficient
rainfall rates too. Given these factors, additional flash flooding
is possible this morning over North TX with any urban corridors or
poor drainage areas most at-risk.

Mullinax

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   33979673 33869642 33749583 33649529 33489497 
            33299472 33079448 32859433 32499422 32279423 
            32029450 31789493 31689524 31579573 31479636 
            31449679 31499755 31609812 31839845 32219842 
            32579820 32779797 33079780 33379768 33689762 
            33939732 

$$

--- Scorpio BBS
 * Origin: capitolcityonlinet.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)