797 
FXUS64 KMRX 210642
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
242 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

- Scattered showers, and a few storms, continue through the night 
  and into the late morning hours. The risk of severe weather is 
  little to none.

- Chances for showers and storms continue into early next 
  week.

- Organized severe storms appear unlikely during this forecast
  period, but the primary threats with storms each day will be
  lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and some gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Scattered showers and a few storms will remain across the area 
through the night and into the late morning hours. The risk of 
severe weather is little to none due to the decrease in instability 
across the area. The main impacts overnight with any thunderstorm 
will be locally heavy rain and brief gusty winds. 

Scattered showers and storms then continue from morning through 
the afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave moves across the area. 
No severe weather is expected today due to poor lapse rates, and 
only modest instability due to an increase in cloud cover, along 
with weak shear. Locally heavy rainfall is possible though as PW 
values remain elevated at 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Any area that sees 
repeated rounds of heavy showers could see some minor flooding
issue.

Frontal boundary lifts back north on Friday and provides focus for 
more showers and storms through the day. Shear will be a little 
better across the area, and if we can get some breaks in the clouds, 
then instability will be as well. SPC only has us outlooked in 
general thunder as of now but if the ingredients come together we 
could see a few strong to severe storms, but chances are low as of 
now. 

Showers and storm chances remain in place through the weekend and 
into early next week as A deep SW flow persists across the 
region. This will set the stage for several disturbances to 
move across our region within this SW flow pattern. No notable signs 
of any severe threat at the moment but we will continue to 
monitor as we approach the weekend timeframe. As we have been 
advertising, QPF through the next 7 days will vary widely 
across our area, depending on which areas see repeated showers and 
storms over numerous days. Generally speaking, 1-3" of rain is 
forecast through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Current radar depicts weakening showers moving northward in
southern Tennessee. This trend should continue in the next few
hours. Patchy fog is possible, but very low confidence. A few 
showers are possible this morning, though confidence is very low 
on coverage and impacts. Otherwise, the most probable time of the 
next round of SHRA and TS is this afternoon and evening. Any VIS 
or CIG impacts are likely to occur during those storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  65  81  66 /  90  80  90 100 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  79  65  82  65 / 100  60  90 100 
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  63  80  63 / 100  70 100 100 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  61  79  61 /  90  50  90  90 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


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