Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 15 2026

...Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Central and Eastern U.S.
ahead of a well-defined front today...

...Developing low pressure system will drive wet and cool weather across
the Northwest and Northern Rockies, and reinforce unsettled weather in the
Plains...

Over the 24 hours, a robust upper-trough over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes will push the leading edge of a well-defined cold towards the
Eastern Seaboard, while the trailing portion of the front begins to return
northward through the Central Plains. This pattern will set the stage for
more stormy weather from the Northeast to the Central Plains today, with
isolated to scattered heavy rainfall and severe weather possible this
morning and later this afternoon. By tomorrow, the cold front is expected
to exit into the western Atlantic, leading to improved weather for much of
the East. For the Western and Central U.S., however, a consolidating low
pressure system in the Northwest will maintain unsettled conditions for
the next several days, especially over the Plains states near a slow
moving warm front. While some of the precipitation from this developing
system could be beneficial (such as in the Northwest today), daily rounds
of thunderstorms in the Heartland will promote an enhanced threat of heavy
rainfall and flash flooding where these storms repeat. Meanwhile, monsoon
thunderstorms are expected to persist across the Southern Rockies and Four
Corners, with an attendant threat of isolated excessive rainfall.

Rainfall aside, the frontal passage(s) should usher in pleasant daytime
temperatures over portions of the Northern Tier, Great Basin, and High
Plains with highs in the low-mid 60s and 70s. Unfortunately, the
upper-ridge will persist for portions of the Southern Plains and
Mid-Mississippi Valley, with the potential for record-breaking heat
expected well into the work week.

Asherman/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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