528 
FXUS64 KMRX 130701
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
 
- Widespread dense fog expected this morning.

- Dry for most of the area through the week with above normal
  temperatures continuing. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Many locations have already developed dense fog, which is expected 
to expand through the next few hours as rain affected most of the 
area at some point yesterday. The latest model runs are quite 
bullish on fog, even the HRRR, which doesn't typically show much fog 
in advance. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed later tonight.  

A shortwave trough will cross the OH Valley and central Appalachians 
tomorrow afternoon and night, followed by a surface cold front. Most 
CAMS are keeping the showers to our north, although the 00Z NAM 
shows some light QPF in our northern sections as it brings the front 
to our northern border by 12Z Monday. NBM still has no PoPs, and 
will keep that going. 

The backdoor front pushes through on Monday as a surface high moves 
into the Mid Atlantic, but it will provide little to no relief from 
the above normal temperatures (although dewpoints will be a little 
lower behind the front). Aloft, a ridge will be over the Southeast. 
Subsidence under this ridge will provide hot and dry conditions for 
most of the area through the week. With forecast highs at CHA in the 
lower to mid 90s each day, the streak of days reaching 90+ degrees 
will continue (now at 40).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Widespread poor aviation conditions are already in place across the 
region and expected to worsen. Low ceilings and fog have already 
been observed at TYS and TRI with these impacts starting later at 
CHA. Reductions to LIFR are forecast at all sites with TYS and TRI 
having the greatest confidence. After fog and low ceilings, 
conditions should gradually improve to VFR by late morning. Winds 
will be light and generally from the north to northwest with cloud 
cover around 5,000 feet AGL. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  68  90  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  68  90  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  64  84  62 /  10  10  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


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 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)