AWUS01 KWNH 211120
FFGMPD
TXZ000-211419-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0202
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
719 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of the middle Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211119Z - 211419Z

Summary...Areas of slow-moving, banded thunderstorm activity may
produce local rain rates of 2-3.5 inches per hour this morning.
Flash flooding is possible if this activity occurs over sensitive locales.

Discussion...A mature MCS is making slow, steady progress along
portions of the lower Texas Coast and south Texas - generally
extending from near Corpus Christi southward to Brownsville.  Slow
movement (around 20 knots - locally slower) and abundant
moisture/instability downstream over adjacent Gulf waters was
aiding efficient precipitation rates (around 3 inches/hr) in the
slowest-moving, northern end of the complex.

Meanwhile, a new band has developed downstream of this complex
near Port Lavaca.  This band is oriented more parallel to steering
flow aloft and perpendicular to the approaching complex from the
west.  2+ inch/hr rain rates are already being estimated with this activity.

Over the next 1-3 hours, the forward propagation of the mature MCS
and slow-movement of the downstream convective band will promote a
prolonged period of heavy rainfall especially along/near the
middle Texas Coast.  FFG thresholds of 2.5 inch/hr should be
eclipsed with this activity, and local totals of 5+ inches cannot
be ruled out through 14Z/9a central this morning.  Flash flooding
is possible - especially if these rainfall totals occur over any
sensitive or low-lying/flood prone areas.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29209606 29159493 28569474 28449491 28289597
            27999679 27399667 27369726 27739758 28459782
            28959718

$$
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