998 
FXUS64 KMRX 140628
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely for the southern half 
  of the region this afternoon and evening. Some isolated flooding
  issues will be possible mainly in flood prone spots and areas 
  that received heavy rain the past few days.

- More typical summer weather Wednesday and Thursday with near 
  normal temperatures and a chance of scattered thunderstorms 
  mainly south of I-40.

- This weekend may bring back higher rain chances as a trough
  moves into the Eastern U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The flooding threat is decreasing and the flood watch has been 
allowed to expire. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are expected this afternoon and evening mainly in the southern 
half of the region. In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over 
the Midwest and an inverted shortwave is near MS/AL. The 
stationary boundary is currently over Central or northern 
MS/AL/GA. Little to no movement is expected today. CAMs have 
showers and storms developing early this afternoon with best 
coverage in the south closer to Chattanooga with coverage more 
isolated near or north of Knoxville. Flooding issues will be 
possible mainly in flood prone spots and areas that have had heavy
rain the past few days. Flooding issues, if any, will be 
isolated.

Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with afternoon showers and 
storms mainly south of I-40. Coverage may be more isolated. With 
lower rain chances, temps will be warmer and close to normal. 
Thursday looks like a repeat of isolated to scattered showers and 
storms mainly south of I-40. A ridge will extend from the Carolinas 
to the Lower Midwest by Thursday and remnants of the lingering 
surface boundary or a surface trough may be over the Tennessee 
Valley.

The pattern will change for this weekend as a trough digs into the 
East Coast, although weak this far south. At the surface, a boundary 
may move into the Ohio Valley. Better coverage of showers and storms 
can be expected Friday, Saturday and Sunday if this pattern holds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the most part. There may be a 
period of MVFR CIGs later tonight into the early morning at CHA, 
and will include a tempo MVFR group there. Scattered showers and 
storms can be expected around CHA in the afternoon with a lower 
chance at TYS. Will keep the VCSH at TYS for now and the prob30 
thunder group at CHA. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  70  88  72 /  90  20  50  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  70  88  72 /  50  10  20   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  69  89  71 /  30  10  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  62  90  68 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


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