554 
FXUS64 KMRX 220545
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
145 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers with some scattered thunderstorms 
through Saturday. The primary threats with storms both Friday and 
Saturday will be strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

-Gusty winds in the some of the higher elevations and foothills 
Friday and especially Friday night. 

- A wet weather pattern persists through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

South to southwest flow aloft will continue to bring Gulf moisture 
into our area as we move into the weekend.  The weak frontal 
boundary just to our north and west will vacillate but will be slow 
to make much progress through Saturday. In addition, weak short wave 
impulses will move across the area Friday and again Saturday.  Given 
the abundance of moisture available, we will see multiple rounds of 
showers and thunderstorms. The low level jet will increase enough 
for shear to be a concern both days but especially Friday. The 
severe threat will be contingent on if enough convective energy is 
able to develop, and the timing and coverage of precipitation during 
the day could inhibit diurnal heating although confidence in these 
details is still lacking. For now, HREF ensemble mean SBCAPE values 
exceed 1000 J/kg over much of the southwestern two thirds of our 
area Friday, and the marginal risk of severe storms with damaging 
winds the primary threat for Friday remains. A few strong to 
marginally severe storms may occur Saturday as well with strong 
winds again the primary threat. In addition, heavy rainfall may 
cause localized flooding especially if repeated heavy downpours 
occur over any given location.   

The pressure gradient will increase across the NC/TN border Friday 
and Friday night as surface ridging noses down east of the mountains 
and surface low pressure tracks by to our west.  Models generally 
show southerly low level winds increasing across the mountains with 
850mb winds reaching the 25 to 40 kt range for a brief time tonight. 
Mountain wave enhancement of the winds will likely bring gusty winds 
to the usual higher elevation and foothill locations of the E TN 
mountain. It still looks marginal for a wind advisory so none will 
be issued as yet, but it will bear watching especially for Friday 
night.  

For Sunday through Thursday, a wet pattern will continue as the deep 
S to SW flow remains over the region. Timing of showers and storms 
will depend on disturbances in the flow and surface boundaries in 
the area, which are difficult to resolve at this time. High PoPs 
with low to moderate chances of thunderstorms appear to be warranted 
in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Waves of showers and storms will move through the region 
throughout this TAF cycle. CIGs will start to lower soon, 
remaining low tomorrow. MVFR CIGs are expected through the 
overnight hours at TYS and CHA. IFR CIGs are expected through the 
overnight hours at TRI. IFR CIGs are likely in the morning hours 
at CHA. Some fog may develop late tonight at TRI but confidence is
low. The best chance for thunder at all sites will be tomorrow 
afternoon and evening but thunder will be possible anytime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  64  80  64 /  90  90  90  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  79  64  80  64 /  90  90 100  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  62  79  62 /  90  90  90  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  60  78  61 /  80  90 100  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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