656 
FXUS64 KMRX 131718
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
118 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 116 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
 
- Dry for most of the area through the week with above normal
  temperatures continuing. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Quieter weather expected this afternoon and evening with clouds 
still slowly clearing out. This cloud deck has helped keep 
temperatures in check today with many locations still sitting in the 
low 80's as of this writing. Those locations in the southern Valley 
that have cleared out are really ramping up in temperature 
however... Clouds will eventually clear out, and unfortunately 
everyone will get another warm day today like most days the past 
month. 

A shortwave will move through to our north tomorrow, followed by a 
surface cold front. CAMs generally have no PoPs associated with this 
dry front with the better forcing remaining off to our north. Can't 
completely rule out a few isolated showers, but it looks 
increasingly unlikely. Front eventually moves through, but it's more 
of a front in name, rather than impact as we should get yet another 
very warm day across the eastern Tennessee Valley.

The dog days of summer are back in full effect Tuesday through the 
end of the week with highs in the 90's for most of the Valley 
locations... and Heat Index values eclipsing the triple digit mark 
for most people along I-40 and south. We could see multiple days of 
Heat Advisories needed on Tuesday and beyond. Dew point values are 
forecasted to drop a couple of degrees by the second half of the 
week, so we might "technically" not hit Heat Advisory criteria... 
but we'll almost certainly be within a few degrees of it. Any way 
you slice it this upcoming week is shaping up to be hot and mostly 
dry again.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Mid level clouds lingering around the region this afternoon, but
VFR conditions expected the rest of the daylight hours. Another
round of fog is possible at TYS/TRI as they have have temperatures
remain more moderate due to the clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  90  67  93 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  84  62  88 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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