621 
FXUS64 KMRX 141813
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
213 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely for the southern half of
  the region this afternoon and evening. Some isolated flooding
  issues could occur in flood prone spots and areas that received
  heavy rain the past few days. But the overall threat is lower 
  than recent days.

- More typical summer weather Wednesday and Thursday with near 
  normal temperatures and a chance of scattered thunderstorms 
  mainly south of I-40.

- This weekend may bring back higher rain chances as a trough
  moves into the Eastern U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The Morristown CWA will remain situated beneath ESE upper flow as we 
remain wedged between an increasingly elongated upper ridge over the 
Upper Midwest and Ohio valley being suppressed to the south by 
shortwaves moving through the Canadian side of the Great Lakes 
region, and a weak upper low over the deep south that is migrating 
towards the Mississippi River valley. As such, Gulf and Atlantic 
moisture will be advected into the region from the south/southeast, 
leading to continued diurnally favored showers and thunderstorms 
each day. This will primarily be during the afternoon hours over the 
southern CWA through Thursday as the influence from the ridge helps 
keep the northern areas dry. For Friday onward we'll lose the ridge 
influence as troughing takes hold across the eastern CONUS and the 
ridge shifts to a typical Bermuda high location off the southeast 
coast. So, look for Friday and the weekend time frame to feature 
more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. That trend also 
continues into early next week.

In terms of severe weather potential, the only concern I have is 
flooding potential. We will continue to have a high PWAT air mass 
through Saturday, with soundings that promote efficient warm rain 
processes and the potential for high rainfall rates. Given the 
rainfall we've had of late, some places will be especially 
susceptible to additional flash flooding should they receive more 
heavy rains. That said, PWATs are slightly lower than they were over 
the weekend, there's less of a signal for heavy rains, and storm 
motions should limit training potential, so I think the overall 
threat for any additional flooding through this weekend is pretty 
low. As we get into Sunday/Monday time frame that threat really take 
a nosedive as we get some drier air filtering in from the north 
behind a shortwave in the developing large scale eastern CONUS 
troughing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Predominant flight categories through this evening should be VFR,
with MVFR conditions if/when showers move through KCHA or KTYS 
terminals. Overnight, HREF guidance is giving some noteworthy
signal for MVFR CIGS to develop at KCHA and even KTYS. Went with a
persistence forecast here, favoring MVFR conditions at KCHA and
just some FEW-SCT IFR clouds at KTYS like what developed last
night and this morning. KTRI should remain dry and also free of
any categories less than VFR levels. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  87  71  90 /  20  40  10  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  89  72  90 /  10  10  10  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  89  71  90 /  10  10  10  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  90  67  91 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


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