928 
FXUS64 KMRX 230603
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
203 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

-Gusty winds expected in portions of the East Tennessee mountains 
and adjacent foothills through early this morning. A Wind Advisory 
is still in effect.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the 
forecast period.

-Warm and muggy conditions with no relief in sight until possibly
 next weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Warm, muggy, and the unsettled pattern will continue through much of 
the forecast period. No real substantial chances to the synoptic 
pattern until possibly next weekend. A frontal boundary will be 
draped across the region or either to the north or south of us for 
the coming days. 

An increasing LLJ throughout the day yesterday was one of the main 
drivers for the severe weather experienced. It is also the main 
driver for the gusty winds currently being recorded over the higher 
terrain at this time. It isn't as strong as what we could typically 
see in the winter with a stout wedge setup on the other side of the 
mountains. But just enough low level southerly to SSE flow over the 
mountains is creating around 45 mph gusts. Camp Creek has gusted as 
high as 50 mph, but gusts can mainly be expected to remain in the 40 
mph range through early this morning. The LLJ is expected to move 
off to the north and essentially dampen our severe weather threat 
for later today.

For later today severe weather-wise, not expecting any storms to get 
as strong. The low level shear will be nearly absent. The SPC has 
yet to put out the Day 1 Outlook at the time of this discussion, but 
we're not expecting them to extend the MRGL from the Carolina's into 
our area. General thunderstorms seem valid. All the other parameters 
observed on a forecast sounding would be indicative of short lived 
cells capable of gusts, lightning, and heavy rain resulting in 
localized flooding. PWs above 1.5", dews in the 70s, CAPEs above 
1000, and frontal boundarys nearby, will support scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms today and pretty much the entire 
holiday weekend. Temperatures will remain the same, outside of a 
shower bringing temps down temporarily, in the coming days.

We may transition into a different weather pattern next weekend just 
outside of the forecast period, when what appears to be troughing 
trying to sink down from the north and east, sending upper heights 
downward. Interestingly enough, the CPC beyond the forecast out to 
early June, hints at temperatures near normal with perhaps just 
below normal to the SE.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

CIGs are mostly VFR across the region but will likely lower to
MVFR in the early morning hours. Scattered showers are expected to
develop early this morning and continue through at least the
afternoon hours. Isolated thunder is also possible mainly in the
afternoon/evening hours. VFR conditions will likely return outside
of heavy showers tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  64  83  65 /  80  60  80  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  63  83  64 /  80  70  80  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  61  83  63 /  80  70  80  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  60  83  61 / 100  60  80  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99


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