944 
FXUS64 KMRX 150518
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
118 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 116 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Isolated showers and storms will be mainly south of I-40 this 
  afternoon and evening.

- By Thursday, showers and storms will be more scattered south of
  I- 40 and isolated to the north.

- Better shower and storm coverage is expected Fri, Sat and Sun 
  as a trough moves into the Eastern U.S. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Showers and storms will be more isolated today with activity 
mainly confined to south of I-40. A lingering stationary boundary 
remains over northern GA/AL today. In the upper levels, a ridge 
extends from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Showers and storms 
will be more isolated today with activity mainly confined to south
of I-40. A typical summer air mass is in place today with good 
instability and good moisture availability (PWAT values near 2 
inches). Severe threat seems low like a typical summer day. The 
threat for flooding issues is low but nonzero. Steering flow is 
around 10 knots. With lower rain chances, temps will be warmer and
close to normal. 

Thursday looks similar with isolated to scattered showers and storms 
mainly south of I-40. A ridge will extend from the Carolinas to the 
Lower Midwest by Thursday and remnants of the lingering surface 
boundary or a surface trough may be over the Tennessee Valley.

The pattern will change for this weekend as a trough digs into the 
East Coast, although weak this far south. A shortwave will move into 
the Ohio Valley Friday afternoon/evening bringing higher chances for 
showers and storms. This pattern will continue through the weekend. 
At the surface, a boundary may move into the Ohio Valley by Sunday. 
Multiple rounds of showers and storms can be expected Friday, 
Saturday and Sunday. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive 
rain for Friday and Saturday, so flooding issues may be a concern if 
this pattern holds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Fog/low cig potential early in the forecast is still uncertain, 
but MVFR cigs look likely to develop at CHA and there is enough of
a chance for fog and/or low cigs at TYS and TRI to warrant a 
tempo MVFR group both sites. Lower conditions are possible. Mainly
VFR remainder of the period, although there will be scattered 
showers and storms around mainly CHA this afternoon with the 
potential for lower conditions to impact the terminal. Will 
include a prob30 thunder group at CHA this afternoon. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  72  90  73 /  40  10  40  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  73  90  74 /  10  10  30  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       89  72  90  73 /  10  10  30  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              90  68  92  71 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


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