MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 142023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142023 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-142230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 142023Z - 142230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through late
afternoon across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Strong wind
gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible through
evening.

DISCUSSION...Pockets of stronger heating behind earlier convection
has allowed temperatures to rise into the 80s across southeast NE
and far southwest IA. Additional heating and warm advection through
the remainder of the afternoon will aid in further destabilization
across the region. Northward extent of surface-based convective
potential remains uncertain given a cooler boundary layer roughly
along/north of the I-80 corridor.

Moderate instability is expected to continue to spread north over
the next few hours within a favorably sheared environment. Where
stronger low-level warming occurs, surface-based convective
potential will be greater. Low-level winds have remained
backed/southeasterly, promoting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2
per regional VWP data. Storms will pose a risk for damaging gusts
given strong background flow and steepened low-level lapse rates. If
a semi-discrete supercell mode can be maintained and become
surface-based, a tornado or two also will be possible. Modestly
steep midlevel lapse rates and mildly cool (-9 to -7 C at 500 mb per
18z LBF and OAX RAOBS) temperatures aloft could also support large
hail if storm mode remains favorable. While the overall scenario
remains somewhat conditional on storm mode and whether or not
surface-based convection can develop, the environment could support
at couple of severe storms, and watch issuance may be needed in the
next 1-2 hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 09/14/2026

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41119820 41739755 42059689 42429592 42229490 41719433
            40879422 40309569 40029723 40089770 40559802 41119820 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$


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