AWUS01 KWNH 151213
FFGMPD
TXZ000-151810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0727
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...Middle Texas Coast Through Houston

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151210Z - 151810Z

SUMMARY...Repeating heavy thunderstorms will continue this morning
from the Middle Texas Coast up through the Houston metro area.
Scattered instances of considerable flash flooding is likely west
of Houston with a localized flash flood risk for the Houston metro.

DISCUSSION...Activity blossomed around sunrise inland from the
Middle Texas Coast along a stationary front east of activity over
the Texas Hill Country (see MPD 725 for that area). An upper low
is over North Texas with deep layer southerly flow over
central/southern/eastern Texas. PW of 2.1" has pooled along with
front with elevated instability (SBCAPE of 3000 J/kg) advecting in
from the south. The cells have been fairly small and are moving,
but repeating activity is occurring with hourly rainfall estimates
to 2.5" near Victoria.

So far, this activity is south of the heavy rain from yesterday,
though northward motion will bring this swath into play by midday.
The 10Z/11Z HRRR have a decent handle on this while the WOFS led
on the threat east of the Hill Country though it only had heavy
rain as far east as Matagorda Bay by the 11Z run.

Still in question is the Houston metro area. A heavy thunderstorm
is east of Galveston Bay and some cells have formed near Freeport.
There should be localized flash flooding in the Houston area this
morning with the considerable threat farther west focused from
Victoria north through I-10.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   30159635 29979534 30049455 29829431 29409443 
            28889510 28399598 27709714 28339762 29189741 
            30109718 

$$

--- Scorpio BBS
 * Origin: capitolcityonlinet.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)