Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 15 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 17 2026

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected across the Southern
Rockies, Plains, and Missouri Valley over the next few days...

...Dangerous late-summer heat continues across the south-central U.S.
through midweek...

An active pattern for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall continues over the
Western and Central U.S. as a slow moving cold front intercepts a very
moist and unstable airmass being pulled towards a deep cyclone in Ontario.
Several rounds of heavy rainfall over the Central Plains and Missouri
Valley will support widely scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding through midweek, and a Flood Watch extends from northeast Kansas
to central Iowa where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Isolated to
scattered severe wind gusts are also possible with the most intense storms
in the Plains today. Across the Southwest and Southern Rockies, a similar
story of overlapping heavy rainfall could unfold over the next few days as
monsoonal moisture surges northward ahead of a strong upper-trough.
Meanwhile, a stationary front over the Florida Peninsula will lead to
daily downpours across the Sunshine State, although no excessive rainfall
is expected from this activity.

The aforementioned front will also support a pronounced temperature
contrast over the Heartland today, with high temperatures in the low 70s
and upper 60s expected behind the front in the Central Plains and Midwest,
compared to upper 90s and triple digit highs ahead of the front across the
Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. Unfortunately, the front
will quickly weaken after today, which suggests the hazardous heat is here
to stay this week for these areas. Heat Advisories extend from the Texas
coastline to the Missouri Bootheel this morning, where several daily high
temperature records will be challenged over the next few days with this
heat wave.

Asherman/Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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