381 
FXUS64 KMRX 231853
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 239 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the 
  forecast period.

- Conditions will also be muggy with no relief in sight until 
  possibly next weekend.
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

General synoptic pattern will consist of ridging over the 
southeastern CONUS and troughing atop the western through the 
weekend. A quasi-stationary boundary will continue to lift north and 
east along with the associated precip shield that has brought fairly 
widespread rains today. A line of showers with the occasional 
embedded thunderstorm can be noted across middle Tennessee per this 
discussion. Some additional isolated to scattered activity is 
expected to pop up this afternoon, but the bulk of this will remain 
along and west of I-75 where a better MLCAPE gradient exists due 
greater time for destabilization post soaking rains. Locally gusty
winds possible with any moderate to heavy downpours but severe
weather unlikely. 

Additional impulse traversing mean flow aloft will continue to 
promote periods of showers and storms possible Sunday. Latest CAMs
admittedly struggle with pin-pointing an exact area and time, but
ultimately the afternoon and evening hours will experience the 
greatest probabilities. Though, the better chances for some 
morning precip will be along the southern plateau and valley. 
General thunderstorm type activity seems to be the most likely 
scenario given a lack of shear with no standout LLJ present, and 
poor mid-level lapse rates south of 6C/km. MLCAPEs near 1000 J/kg 
and PWAT values near 1.5-1.7"(near daily max per KBNA sounding 
climatology) in latest HRRR soundings suggest some locally gusty 
winds will be possible associated with precip loading in the 
strongest convection.

As we head into the new work week, the upper-level flow begins to 
shape into an omega-block pattern. Additional disturbances 
traversing mean flow aloft and continued anomalous PWAT values 
will further promote daily chances of showers and storms 
throughout the forecast period. While temperatures will be 
seasonable, the high dewpoints will lead to a muggy and sticky 
feeling airmass for the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Predominant showers will continue at TRI for a few more hours 
this afternoon. A few spotty showers or isolated storm may pop up
near TYS or CHA, though, confidence in this is low so only 
included brief PROB30s at this time. Conditions will be largely 
VFR outside of any heavier precipitation. MVFR cigs are expected 
to develop at CHA overnight, there is potential some additional
precipitation occurs with this but have left as VCSH due to lower
confidence at this time. HREF probabilities of MVFR cigs at 
TRI/TYS generally remain 10% or less tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             64  82  65  82 /  70  80  60  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  83  64  82 /  50  70  40  90 
Oak Ridge, TN                       62  82  63  81 /  70  70  60  90 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  83  60  82 /  20  80  50  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


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