243 
FXUS64 KMRX 240536
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
136 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Gusty winds across portions of the East Tennessee mountains and 
adjacent foothills for the remainder of tonight.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the 
forecast period.

- Conditions will also be humid with no relief in sight until
  possibly next weekend.
 
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Gusty winds over some of the higher elevations and foothills of the 
E TN mountains will continue through the remainder of the night as 
mountain wave enhancement of the winds is occurring. These winds are 
expected to decrease around sunrise.  The wind advisory for these 
areas will continue through 7 AM.  

We stay in a wet pattern for much of the period.  The weak frontal 
boundary to our north and northwest will meander a bit but not make 
much progress over the next several days, and deep south and 
southwest flow aloft will keep plenty of Gulf moisture feeding into 
our area.  

Another weak impulse aloft will bring an increase in showers and 
thunderstorms Sunday, although exact timing of peak coverage is 
still uncertain. Models show PWAT values near 1.5-1.8"(near daily 
max of KBNA sounding climatology) Sunday, and shear generally looks 
limited while mid level lapse rates are less than 6C/km. Rain rates 
should be high but the severe threat looks low with Sunday's 
convection. However, depending on how much instability develops 
(which will be impacted by the timing/coverage of precipitation), we 
may see a few storms bring strong wind gusts in addition to very 
heavy downpours that could result in localized flooding.  

As we move into the work week, we will continue to see rounds of 
showers and storms with timing influenced by additional weak 
impulses in the upper flow, but with afternoons expected to see the 
highest chances overall. Localized flooding will be a concern for 
any areas that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain given 
the abundant moisture. While temperatures will be seasonable, the 
high dewpoints will lead to a humid and sticky feeling airmass for 
the period as well. 

Some models are hinting that the front could push to our south late 
in the period with drier air moving into our area by Friday or 
Saturday. However, there is no consensus on this scenario for now, 
and the ensemble approach of the NBM shows showers and storms again 
both days, albeit with PoPs trending a bit lower by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Currently, VFR conditions are across the region. MVFR CIGs are
possible in the early morning hours before lifting by late
morning. Multiple rounds of mostly showers with isolated storms
are expected. Best chance for thunder will be in the
afternoon/evening hours but it is hard to narrow down the
timeframe and will be hit and miss. There is a chance for fog at
TRI this morning but confidence is somewhat low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             82  65  82  66 /  80  60  90  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  64  82  65 /  70  40  90  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  63  81  64 /  70  60  90  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  60  82  61 /  80  50  80  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)