660 
FXUS64 KMRX 151847
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will continue today 
and tomorrow, mainly south of Interstate 40. 

- More widespread showers and storms are expected Friday through the 
weekend. A few stronger storms and isolated flooding are possible.  

- Temperatures will be generally near normal through the period
  with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s
  to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Currently, a 5,960m high is centered near the upper Mississippi 
River Valley with a weak area of low pressure near Arkansas to West 
Tennessee. With better moisture, showers have continued in southern 
portions of the area, moving to the west or northwest due to mean 
flow. Low-end instability will keep potential for isolated storms 
but still insufficient coverage and intensity for much flooding 
concern. By Thursday, the upper high will weaken some but progress 
right over northern portions of the region, increasing temperatures 
and slightly decreasing southern rain chances compared to today. 

By Friday, troughing to the north will slightly deepen with the 
upper high pushing off to our east. An area of low pressure will 
also progress out of the northern Great Plains. Overall instability 
and coverage of showers and storms will increase significantly, 
given this pattern. By Saturday, this low will move into the Great 
Lakes with its front sagging southward later in the weekend. The 
flow will also become more northwesterly by Sunday as troughing 
tracks to the northeast. This will keep coverage of showers and 
storms more elevated than in recent days. While models still differ, 
instability could be sufficient for a few stronger storms. Isolated 
flooding will also come back into view, but thankfully rain will be 
limited in the next couple of days. 

By early next week, most sources keep the frontal boundary north of 
the region and an overall similar upper-level pattern. However, high 
pressure tracking to our north will bring drier air to the region 
than the weekend. Some rain chances still remain, but the overall 
trend will be for coverage and intensity similar to today and 
tomorrow. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Showers and isolated storms have continued near and around CHA
with occasional reductions to MVFR and SCT in the 2,500 to 3,000
feet AGL range. As such, VFR was maintained with an upcoming TEMPO
for MVFR. The other two sites are seeing some clouds near this
range but no rainfall. Tonight, fog will be possible again but 
was left out for the time being. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  90  73  91 /   0  30  10  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  91  74  90 /  10  20  30  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  92  71  92 /   0   0  10  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)