Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 16 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 18 2026

...Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Four Corners,
north-central Plains and into Missouri Valley over the next few days...

...Record-challenging high temperatures continue across the south-central
U.S. through midweek...

A slow-moving front will remain the focus for showers and thunderstorms
across the north-central Plains and into the Missouri Valley over the next
couple of days. The most active thunderstorms accompanied by heavy
rainfall can be expected through this evening from northeastern Kansas to
northern Missouri as a wave of low pressure develops and tracks along the
front.  WPC maintains a moderate risk of excessive rainfall within this
general area through tonight where a few additional inches of heavy rain
can be expected.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture in place across the Four Corners region will
be lifted by an upper-level trough moving onshore into the West Coast.
This weather pattern will bring repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms for the Four Corners for at least the next few days. WPC has
a slight risk of excessive rainfall covering much of the Four Corners
states through Thursday, with a moderate risk over southern Arizona on
Wednesday. Heavy downpours associated with these thunderstorms could
develop quickly, resulting in flash flooding over highly localized areas.

As we get into mid-September, cooler air from Canada is beginning to dip
into the northern tier states, bringing cooler than normal temperatures.
Meanwhile, an upper-level high associated with the persistent heat dome
remains strong across the South, resulting in a pronounced north-south
temperature contrast. High temperatures in the low 70s and upper 60s can
be expected north of the slow-moving front in the Central Plains and
Midwest, compared to upper 90s and triple-digit highs ahead of the front
across the Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. The western
end of the front is expected to lift back toward the north as a warm
front, which means that the hazardous heat is here to stay this week
across the South. In fact, high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s
to lower 100s will challenge daily records from the Southern Plains to the
lower Mississippi Valley where Heat Advisories remain in effect.
Meanwhile, a stationary front on the southern edge of the heat dome will
move across the Florida Peninsula, bringing daily downpours across much of
the Sunshine State, although excessive rainfall is not expected from this
activity.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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