656 
FXUS64 KMRX 160520
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
120 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Showers and storms will be isolated this afternoon and evening 
  mainly south of I-40 and in the Upper Cumberland Plateau. 

- More widespread showers and storms are expected Friday through 
  the weekend. A few stronger storms and isolated flooding are 
  possible. 

- Temperatures will be generally near normal through the period 
  with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s 
  to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Light and isolated showers have dissipated and the overnight 
period will be quiet. In the upper levels, a ridge extends from 
the Carolinas to the lower Midwest. At the surface, a stationary 
boundary is over northern MS/AL and central GA. Showers and storms
will be isolated again this afternoon and evening. CAMs and the 
NBM agree that the best chance for a shower or storm will be south
of I- 40 and the Upper Cumberland Plateau. Remnants of the 
lingering surface boundary or a surface trough may be over the 
Tennessee Valley but this feature will be weak. Severe and 
flooding potential are very low today but never zero this time of 
year.

The pattern will change for this weekend. The ridge starts to break 
down Friday with afternoon and evening showers and storms becoming 
more scattered perhaps even numerous, especially south of I-40. By 
Saturday, a trough digs into the Eastern U.S., although weak this 
far south. This pattern continues on Sunday. At the surface, a 
boundary may move into the Ohio Valley by Sunday, weakening as it 
moves into the Tennessee Valley. Multiple rounds of showers and 
storms can be expected Saturday and Sunday as minor waves rotate 
through the pattern. A few strong to severe storms will be possible 
with good instability present. Fri, Sat and Sun will all have good 
deep layer moisture with PWATs increasing to around 2 inches Sat and 
Sun. Some flooding issues may arise by Sat or Sun.

Shower and storm activity will be more isolated Mon, Tues, Wed 
behind a weak cold front. Temps will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Fog and/or low cloud development early in the period is possible,
but the probability of occurrence right now looks too low to
warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Will go with a mainly VFR forecast
all sites for the period. Isolated to scattered showers and 
storms will be around this afternoon CHA and possibly TYS, and 
the highest chance of impacts at the terminal looks to be at CHA 
so will include a prob30 thunder group there. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  74  91  73 /  30  10  60  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  75  90  74 /  20  30  70  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  74  90  73 /  20  20  60  40 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              92  71  93  71 /   0  10  30  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


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