747 
FXUS64 KMRX 241907
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
307 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected this 
  afternoon. Isolated flooding and gusty winds are the primary 
  concerns with the strongest activity. 

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the 
  forecast period.

- Conditions will also be humid with no relief in sight until
  possibly next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

H3 ridging is in place over the southeastern CONUS, with an upper 
low having developed over the southern plains. This setup continues 
to promote enhanced diffluence aloft among an airmass with highly 
anomalous moisture availability. Latest mesoscale analysis suggest 
PWAT values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which is well into the 90th 
percentile per sounding climatology for KBNA. With an MCV expected 
to work north/northeast this afternoon and evening, have decided to 
introduce a short-fused Flash Flood Watch. Latest 12Z suite and 
hourly runs of CAMs all generally have some variation of swaths of 2 
to 4 inch rainfall totals... locations more so isolated and 
variable. With 1hr FFGs ranging from 1.8 to as low as 1.2 inches, 
and 3 hr FFGs largely 1.5-2.0 inches, isolated flash flooding will 
be conditional on training areas of moderate to heavy precipitation. 
Overall, the highest confidence of isolated flash flooding is for 
areas south of I-40 and along and west of I-75. It is also possible 
to see some locally gusty winds under the strongest convection. 

Bulk of the rain gradually wanes southwest to northeast tonight, 
with the potential for some breezy winds in the mountains as slight 
enhancement to roughly 25-30kts is expected in the southerly H85 
flow. Best chance for some lingering morning Memorial Day showers 
will be in the far northeast. A vort max will promote development of 
additional showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening as upper 
diffluence and anomalous PWAT values remain in place. Some 
additional isolated flooding issues may arise during this time as 
well, but confidence is a little lower as the CAMs have not been in 
the greatest agreement on how well activity holds together or how 
great the coverage is. This is why the Flash Flood Watch was not 
carried through tomorrow evening, allowing us to keep monitoring and 
assessing new data as it comes through. 

Overall, no significant change is expected in the synoptic pattern 
as we head into the mid-week. Daily chances of showers and storms 
will continue, and that may come with some flooding concerns 
partially conditional on how exactly the previous days activity pans 
out. There is also no standout threat for any strong to severe 
storms, but with such anomalous PWAT content, heaviest downpours can 
also lead to locally gusty winds due to precip loading.

Some models are hinting that a front could push to our south late in 
the period, with drier air moving into our area sometime next 
weekend. However, there is no consensus on this scenario for now 
and the ensemble approach of the NBM shows showers and storms 
again both days, albeit, PoPs trending a bit lower by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Unsettled pattern continues with additional showers and storms
moving into the area this afternoon and evening. Maintain
predominant MVFR conditions at KCHA based on latest sfc obs and
radar trends, but there may be a period where they transition to
low VFR for a few before returning to MVFR again tomorrow 
morning. Different from previous nights, HREF probs of MVFR or 
cigs increase to the 40-70% range for TYS/TRI Monday morning, so 
have included a transition to MVFR conditions at those sites as 
well. There will be the potential to have some fog or br develop 
due to saturated PBL tonight, but due to expected cloud cover, 
confidence not high enough to include a mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  78  65  81 /  70  90  70  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  78  64  81 /  90  80  70  90 
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  77  63  80 /  80  80  70  90 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  77  61  81 /  80  80  80  90 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday for Anderson-
     Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
     Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
     Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast 
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


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