Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 16 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 18 2026

...Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Four Corners,
north-central Plains and into Missouri Valley over the next few days...

...Record-challenging high temperatures continue across the south-central
U.S. through midweek...

A slow-moving front will remain the focus for thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall across the North-Central Plains and Missouri Valley as it begins
to gradually lift northward over the next few days. In the near-term,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding is anticipated over northeast Kansas and
northwest Missouri this morning beneath training showers and thunderstorms
within a Moderate Risk area. This afternoon, the front will lift northward
and begin to shift the threat of scattered heavy rainfall towards the
Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley through Friday.

The Southwest is equally busy with heavy rainfall as an upper-level trough
funnels monsoonal moisture into the Four Corners region. Portions of
southern Arizona and New Mexico have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall today, with upwards of 2-3" of rain where storms focus.
The coverage of rainfall will lessen tomorrow as a moisture-laden
disturbance pulls away, although widely scattered flash flooding is still
a concern as these storms overlap with today's activity.

As we get into mid-September, cooler air from Canada is beginning to dip
into the northern tier states, bringing cooler than normal temperatures.
Meanwhile, an upper-level high associated with the persistent heat dome
remains strong across the South, resulting in a pronounced north-south
temperature contrast. High temperatures in the low 70s and upper 60s can
be expected north of the slow-moving front in the Central Plains and
Midwest, compared to upper 90s and triple-digit highs ahead of the front
across the Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Unfortunately, the western end of the front lifting northward means that
the hazardous heat is here to stay this week across the South. In fact,
high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to lower 100s will challenge
daily records from the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley
where Heat Advisories remain in effect. Meanwhile, a stationary front on
the southern edge of the heat dome will move across the Florida Peninsula,
bringing daily downpours across much of the Sunshine State, although
excessive rainfall is not expected from this activity.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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