735 
FXUS64 KMRX 160635
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Above normal temperatures persist through the forecast period. 
Slight cooling into next week. 

- Most areas will remain dry this week, however, increasing chances 
of showers each day in the higher terrain as we approach the 
weekend.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A near 600 dam upper high is almost stationary over the SE CONUS, 
bringing record heat for mid September. As we approach the weekend, 
the upper high will scoot back west and eventually weaken. Surface 
high pressure over the E and NE, will also weaken, leaving our area 
more susceptible to just enough instability for diurnal shower 
development. A slight outside chance of showers for the southern 
plateau and mountains of SW Virginia later today. Tomorrow may 
introduce some scattered development over the Southern Appalachians 
into SW Virginia. Precipitation chances for the afternoon and 
evening will persist into next week, possibly expanding in coverage.

The lower to mid (some upper) 90s are forecast through the weekend, 
before a slight turn downward towards the end of the forecast period 
or early next week. Upper 90s to low 100s heat indices will be 
possible from the southern valley up through the central valley. The 
highest heat indices may peak Friday. Though most of the area won't 
reach Heat Advisory criteria, that doesn't mean to let your guard 
down when it comes to to being outdoors, staying cool, and hydrated. 
Our daytime highs yesterday (before climate officially runs after 
this discussion), tied daily records at both Tri-Cities and 
Chattanooga. That makes Chattanooga's streak of 90 and above at 43 
days and counting, with no break in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The main aviation impact into the early morning hours will be the 
forecast development of fog at TRI. Prevailing at MVFR and TEMPO IFR 
were maintained, but reductions to LIFR are certainly possible. 
There is an outside chance of fog at TYS but not enough for 
inclusion in the TAF. Some lower clouds are also possible at CHA but 
not enough for ceilings. Otherwise, morning fog and low clouds will 
lift in the hours after sunrise, leading to clearing conditions and 
light and variable winds through the day. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              90  66  90  67 /   0   0  20  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


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