AWUS01 KWNH 161444
FFGMPD
TXZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0740...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1043 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Corrected for Concerning line:  Flash flooding is LIKELY

Areas affected...South-central Texas & Texas Hill Country...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161430Z - 162030Z

SUMMARY...Catastrophic flash flooding likely to continue though
rain-rates may reduce slightly over the next few hours.  Embedded
cells may still be capable of 2-3"/hr rates.  Broad additional
1-3" with embedded localized 3-6" totals through mid-afternoon. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-W shows a large fairly symmetric convective
canopy over the Hill Country and Southwest TX at this time, though
GLM and NLDN denote a sizable decrease in lightning flashes with
upstream/southwest edge of the complex in Southeast Val Verde and
Kinney county remaining most dense with additional overshooting
tops occurring.  

RADAR mosaic shows MCV starting to become more well defined in
Edwards county lifting northeast with a broad warm-advective
regime across the eastern Hill Country approaching the Llano
Uplift region.  Strong SSE LLJ remains above 30kts per VWP though
slight veering to more southerly, providing isentropic ascent of
weakly unstable air mass emerging from the Western Gulf.  Embedded
convective elements remain within this WAA regime with capability
of narrow updrafts with rates up to 2", but will remain highly
localized with narrow additional 2-4" totals embedded within the
broader moderate rainfall shield.  All rainfall will further swell
the flooded rivers/streams in the area but it is very near this
narrow favorably oriented embedded convective elements that will
prove more considerable in rapid-rise flash flooding. 

Upstream, GOES-W WV shows a split in the sub-tropical jet and jet
streak rounding the base of the mean closed low over the
Trans-Pecos portion of TX, providing broadening diffluent flow
aloft to support favorable outflow.  Surface observations suggest
there remains a southeasterly inflow through the Rio Grande River
Valley proper to intersect the flanking line of the exiting MCV
for favorable orthogonal ascent across the river valley into
Kinney county.  Southwesterly steering flow aloft should allow for
this back-building convective development regime to repeat/train
through areas recently affected by the main convective line over
the last few hours.  This is the area of greatest potential for
the highest rain-rates as new development cools/expands into the
broader MCS complex.  Rates of 2-3"/hr are possible with localized
additional 3-6" totals still possible.  This will result in flash
flooding and broaden the overall areal coverage of significant
flooding that is ongoing to the east and northeast through the
Hill Country.

Note: Rivers and small streams are likely to see secondary flash
flood surges. So even if there is some receding currently or in
the next few hours; an additional flood wave may still occur! So
please remain weather/water aware to save your life.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31589938 31529875 31289828 30819805 30039805 
            29339841 29019890 28779948 28580043 29180090 
            29640110 30310101 30820077 31460001 

$$


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