159 
FXUS64 KMRX 161840
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
240 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Above normal temperatures persist through the forecast period. 
  Slight cooling into next week. 

- Most areas will remain dry this week, however, increasing
  chances of showers each day in the higher terrain as we approach
  the weekend. A few valley locations in northeastern TN into VA
  may also see a shower or storm starting tomorrow, but more low
  to medium chances Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Chattanooga's streak of 90F+ continues. Unfortunately my advanced 
technique of shaking fist at Sun is not working to relieve our 
collective burden of summer overstaying its welcome. Really there's 
no significant changes in the forecast cycle. Can't rule out a 
random cumulus cloud letting out a shower over the Plateau/tall 
western ridges today, then we turn to a diurnally forced scattered 
shower/thunderstorm pattern as the ridge gradually begins its 
western trek and better atmospheric moisture returns to our local 
vertical profiles. Friday into next week are best chances for 
scattered showers and storms, again with it being this hot out, 
think summer pattern where valley locations are both unpredictable 
and may require some luck to get rainfall.

The bummer aspect of diurnally forced storms is the best coverage is 
usually right at or right after peak heating, so not particularly 
expecting storms to prevent highs from occurring, and more likely
to occur in the high Plateau or mountain terrain. Also any relief
from temperatures from afternoon storms comes with the tradeoff of
post storm humidity. 

Next week with the upper ridge centered to our west but still 
generally above average H500 heights, we'll be above normal and hot 
(I am so sorry Chattanooga but you're still stuck in the 90s) but
slightly less hot than right now. I don't think we'll see the 
same and definitely not identical coverage of storms each day over
the next week, but everyone will have at least an opportunity to
wet their driveways. As far as weather hazards out of the storms,
both bulk shear and midlevel lapse rates don't appear to be of 
significance over the next week, so really the only hazards would
be typical thunderstorms: lightning, maybe a gusty wind, and a 
nonzero risk for heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day and much
of the night. Clouds around 4 kft this afternoon will be
predominantly scattered, but could go broken for a brief time. 
Fog tonight at TRI is uncertain, with mixed signals from the 
models. Later forecasts will likely need to make adjustments, but
for now will include a period of MVFR vis from 09-13Z. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  97  73  98 /  10  10   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  94  72  94 /   0  10  10  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  94  71  94 /   0  20  10  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  90  68  89 /   0  50  20  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...DGS


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