450 
FXUS64 KMRX 170601
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
201 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- More widespread chances of showers and storms today into the weekend.
  A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, along 
  with isolated flooding

- Temperatures will remain generally near normal. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Broad troughing currently exists over much of the country, while 
troughing is over the northeast and PNW. The past couple of days of 
very isolated chances of showers and storms, will be replaced by 
increased chances of showers and storms and the return of flooding 
potential today and into the weekend. For later this afternoon and 
evening, though shear will be weak, instability will be plentiful 
with near 2 inch PWAT values. Heavy rain rates possible with any 
storm, and flash flooding could quickly develop, especially over 
areas that have experienced multiple inches of rain early in the 
week and last weekend. Activity wanes tonight, and tomorrow 
afternoon and evening could very well mimic today.

As of yesterday afternoon with the most recent update, the SPC 
placed almost all of the forecast area under a MRGL risk for severe 
weather Saturday into Sunday or Day 3. Day 4 circles a portion of 
the Carolinas to the east. This increased threat will be due to a 
shortwave trough sweeping southeastward, bringing a developing 
frontal system across the area sometime late Saturday into early 
Sunday. The low pressure center will deepen as it moves towards 
southeast Canada and New England. There's some uncertainty as for 
what that may mean for our area. The strongest threat will be well 
northeast of us.

Following the exit of the front, broad ridging will generally remain 
over the Intermountain West, while troughing sets up again early to 
mid week, where we could see another frontal passage and one that we 
may feel the after effects from for once. The end of the forecast 
period may see highs fall below 90 and dew points possibly below 70. 
Leading up until that time, temperatures will generally run around 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A few isolated SHRA ongoing next few hours, but not expected to
impact terminals. Patchy fog is likely this morning, with a TEMPO
at KTRI for IFR, would not rule out LIFR. Conditions to return to
VFR with morning sun. Another day of isolated to scattered TS late
afternoon into early evening, persisted the PROB30s at CHA and
TYS. Outside of storms, winds to remain less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  73  91  74 /  50  20  60  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  74  88  73 /  60  30  90  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  73  88  72 /  60  20  90  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              92  72  87  69 /  20  40  90  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


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