401 
FXUS64 KMRX 260547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
147 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- Periods of scattered rain and thunderstorms to continue. A 
complete wash out is not expected, but low potential for flooding 
still continues, especially as total rainfall begins to pile on.  

- Rain chances remain generally elevated until this weekend, when
  finally a drier airmass from the north may be able to replace
  the stagnant and saturated weather pattern.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

The drum beat of daily rain chances in the war against drought 
continues. CAMs have another day of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms during the mid afternoon and evening hours again 
today. Despite the moist airmass and another day of scattered 
storms, I'm not sold on the need for another day of a large scale 
flood watch here. Heavy rainfall amounts the past 24 hours were once 
more isolated in nature, and while flash flooding is again possible, 
the continued isolated nature of the bouts of heavy rain makes a 
massive watch seem too broad an instrument. There's also no 
guarantee that those who saw rain yesterday see rain again today or 
tomorrow. Mean wind vectors in the atmosphere should allow for 
storms to keep steady motions, and not sit and dump on any one town 
for too long. There's some weak low level shear present today, with 
the HRRR painting light helicity tracks across the region. Better 
shear is present in Kentucky, and while we may see transient 
rotation in more mature cells later, not expecting a severe threat 
today.

After today, we have a few more days of high moisture just pooling 
over the Mid South region, with generally light forcing dynamics 
continuing. The front looks to move slightly further north into 
Kentucky but generally remain stationary. By Friday the front moves 
to our south, though some models (such as the Euro) keep things 
stationary and close enough on our southern side through the weekend 
to warrant low PoPs. Should the front make it a little further 
south, as the GFS depicts, then the weekend may be drier for all.

From the weekend onwards into early June the longer range ensembles 
bring about a drying out period, with the EPS mean PWAT dropping to 
1" or less next week. This should give everyone an opportunity to 
deal with outdoor chores, and a time for locations to dry out once 
more.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Currently VFR conditions are present across the region. MVFR
conditions are possible in the early morning hours. Patchy fog is
possible but will likely not be dense. Shower activity will 
increase in the morning hours, becoming widespread in the 
afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in thunderstorm 
development is higher today for the afternoon/early evening hours.
Showers and storms are expected to taper off after sunset this 
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             79  66  82  66 /  80  80  90  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  65  81  65 /  70  80  90  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  64  81  63 /  80  80 100  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  62  80  61 /  80  60  90  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 3 AM EDT early this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ early this morning for 
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Cocke Smoky 
     Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Jefferson-
     Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-North Sevier-Northwest 
     Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
     Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...McD


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