130 
FXUS64 KMRX 212330 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
630 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the East TN 
mountains and portions of southwest VA for two separate rounds of 
snow. 

- Quick shot of light snow tonight into Sunday morning, then a break 
Sunday afternoon. Northwest flow snowfall Sunday night through 
Monday evening. Light to moderate accumulations expected in the East 
TN mountains and light accumulations for the southwest VA mountains, 
with potential for low elevations snow showers/flurries at times.

- Gusty winds Sunday through Monday. Gusts to around 30 mph expected 
for all valley locations with gusts near 40 mph possible in the 
mountains of East TN.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
  Sunday through Monday across the higher elevations of southwest
  VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.  
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Two rounds of winter weather expected between tonight and Monday 
across southwest VA, northeast TN, and the East TN mountains. A 
Winter Weather Advisory in in effect from midnight tonight through 
midnight Monday night.

Precipitation spreads into the area tonight along the leading edge 
of an incoming trough. Rain changes to snow around midnight across 
the east TN and southwest VA mountains. Then, the rain/snow line 
moves down in elevation toward sunrise with snow showers/flurries 
across the lower elevations. The bulk of the precipitation moves 
east of our area by 10 AM with this first wave. Elevations above 
4000 feet across the east TN mountains are expected to see 1 to 3 
inches of snow during this time. Lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches 
expected between 2500 and 4000 feet. The highest elevations of 
southwest VA may see 1 to 2 inches. A dusting to a few tenths of an 
inch of snow are also possible across valley locations across 
northeast TN and southwest VA. Minor travel impacts are probable 
across the highest elevations during these times.

We see a brief break in precip Sunday afternoon before the northwest 
flow snow machine cranks up Sunday night through Monday. An 
additional 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected during this time above 
4000 feet across the East TN mountains and 1 to 2 inches between 
2500 and 4000 feet. For southwest VA mountains, another 1 to 2 
inches. Minor travel impacts are likely at times across the highest 
elevations and probable across the low to middle elevations. 
Accumulations from trace amounts to a few tenths of an inch are 
possible across the valley locations of southwest VA and into 
northeast TN. Little to no impacts expected for valley locations.

The two periods of expected winter weather allowed for a long 
duration Winter Weather headline. The advisory is in effect from 
midnight tonight until midnight Monday night. This long duration was 
done in order to simply things, instead of ending an advisory Sunday 
afternoon and having to reissue a new one for Sunday night. 

Additionally, we are still expecting gusty winds areawide Sunday and 
Monday. The highest peaks of the East TN mountains will gust to 
around 40 mph at times, and valley locations across the rest of our 
area will see gusts from 20 to 30 mph. With below normal 
temperatures in place, and gusty winds, wind Chills in the single 
digits to below zero are expected Sunday through Monday across the 
higher elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC 
mountains. 

Snow tapers off Monday night with drier conditions and warming trend 
expected into the mid-week. Next chances for rain will be Wednesday 
night into Thursday with it currently looking to trend drier by next 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Ceilings lower tonight as precip spreads in from southwest to 
northeast. MVFR ceilings are forecast for all sites. VFR 
conditions return around sunrise for CHA and TYS but remain 
through the period at TRI. Additionally, gusty west to northwest 
winds of around 25kts are forecast tonight and through the end of 
the period at CHA and by late tomorrow morning at TYS and TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             33  44  24  39 /  20  10  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  33  40  24  35 /  40  10  20  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       32  40  23  36 /  40  10  10  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              33  37  22  31 /  50  50  60  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST 
     Monday night for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky 
     Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
     Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST 
     Monday night for Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


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