865 
FXUS64 KMRX 171926
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
326 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 322 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Hot. Will become less hot next week. Drink plenty of water and 
  find shade when possible when outdoors, especially in large 
  outdoors sports venues. 

- Increasing rain chances for the higher terrain this weekend into
  next week with the valley less likely to see rain, similar to a
  typical summer pattern. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

As of this writing there are large cumulonimbus clouds in southwest 
Virginia and southern Kentucky producing showers and a few 
thunderstorms. A few gusty winds are possible with these storms, 
paired with lightning. A change of pace from the absolutely 
suppressive ridge we've had the last few days that stymied any 
activity.

Speaking of the ridge, the heat dome of doom, I mean the large and 
in charge pile of hot air, it is gradually shifting its central axis 
west towards Arkansas. As a consequence we're getting enough 
moisture now filtering in to begin sparking a few showers and 
thunderstorms where the oppressiveness and dry air has lessened 
enough. Today that's southern Kentucky and southern Virginia, 
maybe a spot or two in Tennessee. As we head into the weekend and 
early next week, and the ridge continues its two step to the left,
this area will expand to the whole of the area and everyone will 
have a shot for a thunderstorm or two. Not everyone will get rain 
though, we're still in a summer pattern so its still hit or miss 
style. Next week we'll look to the Midwestern weather pattern to 
see if a forecast trough can spark better storm coverage down here
between Monday and Wednesday, primarily during the afternoon 
hours still. For now not expecting severe storms, but any decent 
thunderstorm could pack brief gusty winds inside the core.

Tracking Chattanooga's consecutive 90F record, next Wednesday's
forecast high is 89, and the day after is 87. So perhaps an end is
in sight for the worst of the heat. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A few popcorn showers on radar now and a few more this afternoon
expected, but not expecting terminal impacts. VFR conditions
should generally reign supreme through the period with the
exception of another bout of fog at Tri-Cities tomorrow morning.
Included a TEMPO for IFR fog during the most likely timeframe. VFR
by or shortly after 12z, as is typical. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  98  74  98 /  10  10   0  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  95  71  94 /  10  20  20  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  95  71  93 /  10  20  10  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  89  67  88 /  20  50  20  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99


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