855 
FXUS64 KMRX 270545
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
145 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

- Another day of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon 
into the evening with isolated to widely scattered coverage.

- Storm chances will not go away over the next several days, but
  the trend is to see longer and longer periods of dry weather and
  smaller windows of storms as we head into the back half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Rain chances to continue again today, but expecting even more 
isolated rain chances thanks to weak upper and surface level 
forcing. CAMs are depicting widely scattered to isolated coverage, 
with the southern valley and southern portion of the mountains most 
likely to see scattered convection. HRRR also depicts 20 to 30 knots 
of effective shear, but overall profiles suggest severe threat is 
once again very limited. A similar story will play out on Thursday, 
with perhaps even more limited convective coverage. Short of any 
storm falling exactly on top of our more saturated locations, flood 
threat is pretty limited but not zero, depending primarily on if a 
storm can quickly dump a lot of rainfall on already saturated 
ground. 

Friday the GFS and Euro are coming into alignment with potentially 
more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially in the 
southern half of the area. A stretched out piece of vorticity, 
coupled with the entrance to a jet streak and the nearby stationary 
front, may be enough to spawn a greater coverage of storms on 
Friday. Beyond Friday, we'll generally be in a warm gentle ridge, 
with remarkably flat temperature trends, and no clear sharp airmass 
change for just a little while longer. As we head out as far as 
midweek next week, a large upper trough will envelop portions of the 
Eastern US. Uncertainty regarding the trough coupled with a 
generally remnant moist airmass means low PoPs to cover for an 
isolated storm will remain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

CIGs are mostly VFR but some low clouds are starting to develop.
MVFR CIGs will be possible by morning especially near CHA. Some
patchy fog is possible especially near TRI but dense fog is not
expected. VFR conditions will return by mid morning. Showers and
storms will be isolated to scattered mainly in the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  66  84  66 /  50  30  50  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  65  82  63 /  70  70  70  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  64  82  62 /  80  60  70  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  62  81  57 /  60  80  80   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99


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