AWUS01 KWNH 181406
FFGMPD
FLZ000-181704-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0764
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Southwest FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181404Z - 181704Z

Summary...A training rain band around a convective MCV has
temporarily stalled across Southwest FL.  Hourly rain amounts to
3" are possible which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...An inflow band around the southeast side of a
convective MCV centered west-southwest of Tampa appears to have
stalled between Everglades City and Naples.  Precipitable water
values are ~2".  Effective bulk shear is 25-30 kts.  Inflow from
the Gulf has led to the import of ML CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.

The guidance suggests that the convective MCV should try to
consolidate and wobble westward during the day today.  Drifting
counter to the rainband's previous outward migration may be
leading to the temporary stalling of the rain band.  Based on the
ML CAPE orientation, the band should continue to radiate outward
at some point, or the circulation around it could be disrupted by
diurnal convection across the interior of southern FL early this
afternoon.  Until it dislodges, hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible which could lead to flash flooding.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   26878171 26668118 25638122 25608159 25868176 
            26238188 26548203 

$$

--- Scorpio BBS
 * Origin: capitolcityonlinet.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)