AWUS01 KWNH 271444
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-271842-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0259
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1043 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas affected...portions of north Texas, including Dallas/Fort
Worth Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271442Z - 271842Z

Summary...A very slow-moving band of convection has formed over
eastern Dallas metro while producing rainfall rates approaching 3
inches/hr.  Flash flood is likely with this activity over the next
2-4 hours.

Discussion...A focused band of convection near eastern Dallas
metro has materialized over the past hour or so.  The convection
was focused along enhanced low-level convergence on the western
edge of 20-30 kt 850mb flow in northeast Texas.  A weak surface
low was also noted in the general vicinity of the convection as
well.  The low-level convergence was likely operating in tandem
with weak forcing from a mid-level wave over the area to force
deep ascent of an abundantly moist (1.8 inch PW) airmass with
sufficient conditional instability (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE) for strong
updrafts.  Given the heavy rainfall rates and higher-end MRMS
Flash responses near Rockwall, it is likely that flash flooding is
imminent beneath this band if not already occurring.

The overall duration of this flash flood scenario is in question
and will likely be tied to the persistence of enhanced, easterly
low-level flow into the axis of convection.  RAP/mesoanalyses
suggest that this axis will weaken eventually, but may take a few
hours to do so.  A slow westward/northward drift will likely occur
as long as convection persists, and with intense local rainfall,
areas of 5+ inch rainfall totals cannot be ruled out through
18-19Z (approx 2p central).  Flash flooding is likely, and with
nearby urban population centers at risk, significant impacts
cannot be ruled out.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   33839674 33729587 33129552 32229564 32109661
            32849731 33749723
            
$$


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