420 
FXUS64 KMRX 271740
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
140 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

- Another day of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon 
into the evening with isolated to widely scattered coverage.

- Storm chances will not go away over the next several days, but
  the trend is to see longer and longer periods of dry weather and
  smaller windows of storms as we head into the back half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Currently storms already present across much of the southern 
Appalachians under clearer skies early this afternoon. This will 
help fuel the continued diurnally driven shower and thunderstorms 
we've experienced for numerous days now. Expect these storms to 
continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening and dissipate 
before midnight. We could see a few strong storms later this 
afternoon across northeast TN and southwest VA closer to better 
synoptic forcing and a surface boundary, but the best atmospheric 
dynamics looks to stay off to our northeast. Can't rule out some 
rogue storms lingering past midnight across southwest VA as well. 
Forecast soundings indicate a fairly unimpressive atmosphere, but a 
quick burst of wind is possible in the strongest storms this 
afternoon. The orientation of these storms means they'll be generally 
 moving southwest to northeast and that could cause some very 
localized training of storms... So we could see some additional 
isolated flooding, especially in areas that received multiple rounds 
of heavy rain over the past several days.

Continuing tomorrow we'll actually have a decent chance to see 
suppressed thunderstorm activity as the front to our north sags 
further south. Depending on how far south this boundary makes it 
we'll likely keep storm activity to the south of it. Locations north 
of I-40 have the best chance at staying rain free based on current 
CAM runs. Saturday might see a surge back north of the storm 
activity, but confidence is low at this point due to minor changes 
in the atmosphere and lingering outflow boundaries likely to 
influence the final location of the boundary.

Sunday into next week could bring some drying out to the region as 
we sit on the southwest side of a deep trough/low meandering through 
the northern portion of the United States. This slow moving system 
means we'll be under generally drier northwesterly flow through much 
of the atmosphere. Surface high off the Atlantic coast could still 
draw up some low level moisture, but this pattern would typically 
indicate less chances for rain over the end of the weekend and into 
next week. In addition temperatures ever so slightly cool by a 
couple of degrees for the first half of next week under this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Scattered showers across the region will continue for the rest of
the evening, eventually dissipating after sunset. Multiple rounds
can be expected at each TAF site briefly bringing conditions down
to IFR or lower. Depending on how much rain occurs at an airport
we could see fog develop overnight, but low confidence at this
time until we see where rain occurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             67  84  66  80 /  30  50  30  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  82  63  81 /  50  70  10  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  82  62  80 /  40  40  10  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  81  57  82 /  70  70   0  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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