Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 19 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 21 2026

..There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Saturday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes and Northern Rockies on
Friday and the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern
New England on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday...

Upper-level energy will help produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes on
Friday into Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

On Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. Numerous flash flooding events
are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

Moving into Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Sunday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Heavy rain will also
develop over parts of Southern New England. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern New
England on Sunday as well. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

In addition, an upper-level low over the Northern Rockies will produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Northern
Rockies on Friday into Saturday morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
Rockies on Friday into Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Similarly, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Northern High Plains on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern Rockies on Saturday into Sunday morning.  The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Moreover, on Saturday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains through Sunday morning.  The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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