262 
FXUS64 KMRX 280542
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- Lower chance of showers today, mainly across southern sections.

- Rain chances persist through the weekend, but a dry weather
  pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Showers are currently tracking southeast across the area, associated 
with a pre-frontal trough that will slowly push through the area 
overnight. Convergence along the trough in the moist air mass will 
keep at least some isolated showers through most of the night. This 
boundary will be near our southern border by sunrise, while the 
trailing cold front will be entering our northern sections. Surface 
dewpoints will remain in the 70s south of the front, so some 
scattered to isolated showers can be expected tomorrow, mainly near 
the front. A northerly flow through the low levels and some drier 
air aloft will limit coverage and intensity of convection. NBM PoPs 
will be cut back. 

Friday looks to have pretty limited rain chances, with the best 
chances in southern sections as the axis of deep moisture will be 
across GA/N AL/West TN, with midlevel ridging over our area. 
Forecast soundings look rather stable as well, with only weak CAPE 
present in the southern half. The axis of moisture returns northward 
on Saturday as PW values return to the 1.6-1.8 inch range, and a 
midlevel trough moves over the area. 

Sunday into next week could bring some drying out to the region as 
we sit on the southwest side of a deep trough/low meandering through 
the northern portion of the United States. This slow moving system 
means we'll be under generally drier northwesterly flow through much 
of the atmosphere. Surface high off the Atlantic coast could still 
draw up some low level moisture, but this pattern would typically 
indicate less chances for rain over the end of the weekend and into 
next week. In addition temperatures ever so slightly cool by a 
couple of degrees for the first half of next week under this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Conditions are currently VFR across the region with mostly thin,
high clouds present. Conditions are better for fog development
than the last several days. Patchy fog is likely in the early
morning hours and dense fog cannot be completely ruled out. VFR
conditions will return by mid morning. The best chance of a shower
or storm will be near CHA, mainly in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  66  81  65 /  50  10  60  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  63  82  64 /  60   0  50  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  62  82  63 /  60   0  40  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  56  82  59 /  60   0   0  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)