Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 19 2026 - 12Z Mon Sep 21 2026

...Heavy Rainfall threat across portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
Great Lakes, Central Plains into Northern Rockies through Saturday...

...Heavy Rainfall threat expands into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Sunday...

...Severe weather threat across portions of the central/southern Plains
and Rockies, Ohio Valley, and Southeast through the weekend...

A progressive northern stream trough will move eastward from the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes toward the Northeast through the weekend
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest
into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and eventually the Northeast. The
trough will push the surface frontal boundary eastward and will drape
across the Midwest into the central/northern Plains and Rockies. The
boundary will provide sufficient forcing, while interacting with deep
moisture and instability, which will support periods of moderate to heavy
rain with locally excessive totals. The heaviest rainfall/flash flooding
concerns will be over portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio
Valley for Saturday, where the system is expected to produce multiple
rounds convection. Meanwhile, further west, scattered thunderstorms may
produce localized flash flooding over the central/northern Plains into the
Rockies through the weekend, with a concentrated area for heavier rainfall
rates over portions of Montana for Saturday.

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly push further
east-northeast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic and portions of the
Northeast. Continuous interaction with warm moisture will reinforce
excessive rainfall concerns over portions of the Midwest and Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes, while expanding the risk into portions of the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where soil remains saturated from previous
rainfall. By late Sunday into early Monday, the focus for heavier rainfall
continues to shift toward the coastal areas over the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted
a risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and severe winds
across portions of the central and southern Plains/Rockies, Midwest, Ohio
Valley, and Southeast through the weekend.

Across the Southeast, warm Gulf moisture will support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Slow moving storms
may produce high rainfall rates, which may lead to isolated flash flooding
over portions of the south Florida. Additionally, residual anomalous
moisture may lead to thunderstorms over portions of Texas and southern
Plains, which pose a risk for localized heavy rainfall through the
weekend.

Otherwise, above average temperatures will remain concentrated across the
southern Plains, mid to lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast where
persistent ridging will support highs in the 90s to lower 100s and warm
overnight temperatures. Some locations may approach or exceed daily
records and Heat Advisories remain in affect. Elsewhere, temperatures will
trend closer to or below normal behind the frontal boundary.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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