ACUS03 KWNS 280731
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some possibly severe with wind and hail potential,
are expected over parts of the Plains states on Saturday. The most
concentrated area is forecast to be over western Nebraska and South Dakota.

...Northern High Plains...

An upper low/shortwave trough will eject in negative tilt fashion
across the northern Rockies on Saturday, with a lobe of stronger
winds aloft across the area. Midlevel temperatures will be cool,
with -12 or colder at 500 mb.  This, combined with an influx of low
60s F dewpoints into western SD and NE, will support moderate
instability. Further, surface winds will be backed to southeasterly,
as will winds at 850 mb, helping to transport moisture westward and
enhance storm relative inflow. Storms appear likely to form during
the late afternoon within the surface trough, with large hail and
perhaps brief tornado potential. Then, storms will likely merge into
a forward-propagating cluster or MCS, with damaging winds into the evening.

...KS/OK/TX...

At least isolated severe activity appears possible Saturday
afternoon, including hail and damaging wind threat, as a moist and
unstable air mass develops. While the main upper wave will be well
to the north, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the
region, which when combined with upper 60s F dewpoints and daytime
heating, will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE. A surface trough and
dryline are forecast to extend from central KS into western OK and
northwest TX, and surface convergence may be sufficient to support
sporadic cell development by late afternoon. Forecast soundings
indicate veering but weak shear profiles, however, slow-moving
supercells may occur with large hail and locally severe gusts.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2026

$$
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