410 
FXUS64 KMRX 190543
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue, with activity more 
confined to the higher terrain tomorrow. A few strong to marginally 
severe storms could produce gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Possible strong cold frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday bears 
watching for severe weather capability. Below normal temperatures 
and drier air will follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The large scale pattern can be classified by ridging generally 
centered over the Four Corners region and Intermountain West the 
next couple of days, followed by weak NWly flow over us with 
troughing to the north and subsequent shortwaves cycling through. A 
possible tropical system may eventually become enveloped in the flow 
around the Peninsula and Big Bend of Florida early to middle part of 
this week. A stout shortwave diving SE across the Great Lakes before 
curving up around New York late Tuesday into Wednesday, will bring 
our next frontal system across the area. Following that, we'll still 
be situated east of upper ridge into the latter part of the week and 
into the weekend.

Today will be very similar to yesterday in regards to shower and 
thunderstorm mode and environment. Again, plentiful unstable 
conditions with PWATs running near 2 inches. Shear will continue to 
be weak, further away from the best dynamics. Therefore, heavy rain, 
lightning, possible gusty conditions, and localized flooding will be 
on the table today. For tomorrow, according to CAMs, the best chance 
of showers and storms appears to be more confined to the higher 
terrain, with a pseudo stationary front draped over us. Weak flow 
may keep the currently un-named system to our south, possibly not 
impacting us at all. 

Tuesday into Wednesday may need monitoring with the potential for 
severe weather with the next cold front expected to impact the 
region. The SPC highlights Kentucky into Pennsylvania Tuesday, and 
the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday. Timing will certainly play a 
role, but deterministic model forecast soundings during the 
overnight period do show an increase in shear.

Following the mid-week cold front, Thursday will be very nice with 
low to mid 80s highs and dew points in the 60s under high pressure. 
Temperatures rise a couple of degrees into the weekend, but for the 
most part remain below normal. A shortwave cycling the top of the 
upper ridge Friday into Saturday, may bring precipitation chances 
back to the area and unfortunately increased dew points yet again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A band of showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, is expected to cross
from NW to SE over the next 6 to 8 hours, affecting TRI and
potentially TYS. Have VCSH for now, will metwatch for TS. A few
hours of MVFR also likely at TRI in association with showers. Otherwise
another day of diurnal showers and thunderstorms during the main 
convective timeframe in the afternoon to early evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  73  91  74 /  60  20  50  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  72  89  74 /  70  20  50  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  72  89  73 /  80  30  50  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  68  87  69 /  70  40  50  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


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