Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 20 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 22 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Upper Great Lakes, into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, and
over parts of the Northern High Plains on Saturday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Northern Rockies on Sunday and the
Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains and Central High Plains on Saturday and
Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday...

A wave of low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move
eastward off the Northeast Coast by Monday and produce heavy rain over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. Numerous flash flooding
events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially
affecting larger rivers.

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along the
front, producing heavy rain over parts of the Ohio Valley into parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Upper
Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday into Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.

In addition, a second wave of low pressure over the Northern High Plains
on Saturday will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northern High Plains Saturday into Sunday
morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Similarly, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Northern High Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
High Plains on Sunday into Monday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

The SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Central High Plains and the Central/Southern Plains
through Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
minimal threat of tornadoes.

Likewise, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains from Sunday through
Monday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Additionally, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Sunday through Monday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
and the Southeast through Monday evening.


Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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