208 
FXUS64 KMRX 291059 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Moisture returns today, with periods of showers/storms tonight 
  and Saturday, some of which may produce heavy rainfall and 
  flooding.

- A dry weather pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A surface front sits south of our area, with a mid/upper level ridge 
extending SE to NW across the region. Through the night, 850 mb 
winds will shift from NE to S in response to an approaching low 
pressure system over AR/MS. Low level moisture will be increasing 
through the day, but the mid/upper ridge will keep rain chances 
mainly in our southern sections. Forecast soundings show quite a 
pronounced gradient of PW across the area this afternoon, from 1.9 
at CHA to 1.1 at TRI. By tonight, the mid/upper ridge will have 
retreated and convection should blossom as a shortwave trough moves 
into the TN Valley. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles suggest efficient 
warm cloud processes, and a surface front in the area will help 
focus and sustain convective development. The main concern with this 
precip will be locally heavy rainfall and training cells that could 
dump 1-2 inches in an hour. The main period for this threat is 
expected to be from midnight to noon Saturday. By Saturday 
afternoon/evening, a closed low over New England and the Mid-
Atlantic region will rotate southward and push drier air into our 
area, lowering rain chances through Sunday. The NBM's likely PoPs on 
Sunday will be cut back to a chance/slight chance.

An East Coast trough and a building ridge over the MS River to Great 
Lakes region will result in mainly dry conditions in East TN for 
most of next week, with temperatures staying fairly close to normal. 
Rain chances may return late in the week as the ridge aloft breaks 
down and Gulf moisture advances northward into the lower MS region 
and western TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A band of SHRA/TSRA should break out INVOF KCHA between roughly 
19z-22z this afternoon, slowly moving north through late tonight. 
Confidence in them affecting a terminal is highest at KCHA so have
gone with a TEMPO group there. Maintained PROB30 groups elsewhere
where confidence in coverage is a little less. The other forecast
item of note is that low-end MVFR CIGS should move north up the 
TN valley after midnight tonight. TAFs will be out shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  66  82  65 /  40  80  80  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  67  79  63 /  20  70  60  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  66  79  61 /  20  70  70  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  62  81  57 /   0  30  40   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


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